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Analysis: Experts doubt Shih's ploy will drive Chen from office

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) is under pressure with thousands protesting against his corruption-plagued presidency, but he will likely ride out the storm, analysts said.

Leaders of the anti-Chen campaign had said that they expected more than 300,000 protesters to brave bad weather and turn out on Saturday on the first day of a round-the-clock demonstration in front of the Presidential Office. But police estimated the crowd at only about 100,000.

"The protest certainly generated some pressure on the president," said Lee Shiao-feng (李筱峰), a professor of Shih Hsin University.

One sign that Chen had been feeling the heat could be seen in his visit last week to Tainan County, his birthplace and a traditional stronghold of his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Lee said.

Shih Ming-teh (施明德), the former DPP chairman who is now calling for the president's head, has collected more than 1 million signatures in a petition to force him out.

"Our protest will never cease as long as he continues to stay in office," Shih said.

Political experts, however, were unsure that Shih would be able to maintain the momentum of his campaign long enough to actually see his adversary leave office.

"Protesters may have vented their anger in the first few days of the rally, but the problem is how long Shih can keep the protest energetic. A week, two weeks?" asked Liu Bi-rung, political science professor of Soochow University.

One professor at National Chengchi University agreed, saying it was still possible if the protests quickly dwindled that Chen could walk away from the present crisis practically unscathed.

"Without pressure, Chen would by no means quit. As a matter of fact, not a single politician in the world has done so [without pressure]," he said.

Chen survived an unprecedented vote in the legislature in June to push him out of office.

The proposal did not come close to receiving the backing of two-thirds of all lawmakers, but if passed would have triggered a national referendum on Chen's future.

The president's problems worsened in May when his son-in-law Chao Chien-ming (趙建銘), was detained and later indicted on suspicion of insider trading and taking bribes. Chen has publicly apologized for his son-in-law's actions.

Prosecutors then began looking at whether Chen had misused funds intended for national affairs, and questioned him last month.

Opposition lawmakers have alleged that prosecutors found only half the funds for which Chen's office had declared receipts and suspected that some of the money might have been used illegally.

Lee said the demonstrators would require more concrete evidence showing Chen and his wife were guilty of graft before they could hope to deliver a knock-out punch.

"As of now, many of the charges against the first family are simply allegations. With that in mind, why should the president back down?" he asked.

Chen has repeatedly denied all wrongdoing and has vowed to finish his presidential term. While addressing hundreds of supporters in Tainan, Chen made that clear: "A-Bian will not fall. Taiwan's people will not fall. Taiwan's democracy will not fall."

"I was elected by the people," the president said. "Asking me to step down without a justifiable reason is against the principles of democracy."
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