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Chinese spy concerns keep Taiwan in the dark

The release of information on the Pentagon's latest operational plan to fight China if Beijing decides to launch military action against Taiwan has lifted the lid on a problem that many US specialists in Taiwan and Chinese military matters have long worried about: allegations that Chinese spies may have infiltrated deep inside Taiwan's military.

The concern, according to several specialists who spoke with the Taipei Times, has kept the US from sharing much of its information with Taiwan's defense ministry despite enhanced cooperation between the two militaries in recent years.

As a result, Taiwan's military may have been kept in the dark about the Pentagon's latest operational plan to deal with a Chinese military attack on Taiwan.

"There is a danger that Taiwan is pretty badly penetrated, thoroughly penetrated, by the Chinese," said one military expert who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

"Most observers simply think that that has happened over the years, and the evidence has been the occasional discoveries [of spies]. That is at least something you would have to take into account when you decide what it is that you are going to share," the expert said.

There is "more of a suspicion, a general feeling you will find if you had conversations with folks who work on these issues," he added. "They would say, `Look, the Taiwanese military is so penetrated that it's hopeless.'"

William Arkin, the journalist who wrote a recent story about the existence of the Pentagon's latest war plan for dealing with a Chinese attack, Oplan 5077-04, has his own suspicions.

"When you look at the really significant expansion of coalition information sharing since 9/11," he said, referring to US-led international communications exchanges on terrorism and other threats, "Taiwan is not really involved."

The US war plan, he notes, is a unilateral plan.

"I don't see them taking the Taiwanese military capability and using it as a force multiplier," he said. "I see it as a go-it-alone plan."

Military specialist Richard Fisher, a vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, echoed those remarks.

"I would agree that the danger of penetration in Taiwan is very high," he said. "There's a real security concern with regard to any past and any future military communications we might have with the military and government on Taiwan."

"That has been a constant risk throughout the history of Taiwan, and one that the US government is likely aware of, and one that you can plan for," he said.

However, the specialists agreed that knowing about the penetration of spies can give the US a great opportunity to fool the Chinese by spreading "disinformation" along with whatever real information Washington is willing to share, albeit indirectly, with Beijing.
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