Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) will probably fail to get US President George W. Bush to issue a public rebuke of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) over the National Unification Council (NUC) issue when the two leaders meet in Washington next week, a former senior US official said on Thursday.
But Hu may feel constrained to make his own statement on the matter to satisfy domestic Chinese politics, said the former official, Michael Green, who was until recently the senior director for Asian affairs in Bush's National Security Council.
There has been speculation in advance of next week's summit meeting that in exchange for meeting several of Washington's demands during the meeting, Hu would seek a public statement by Bush on Taiwan in exchange, similar to Bush's December 2003 statement criticizing Chen for planning to hold two referenda during the March 2004 presidential election.
"The Chinese obviously very much want another public slap on Taiwan referring to President Chen" as causing tensions in cross-strait relations, Peter Yeo, a senior Democratic staffer on the House International Relations Committee, told a seminar on Hu's visit on Wednesday.
However, "as much as [the Chinese] would like a repeat of December 2003, some statement critical of Taiwan, I don't think they'll get it," Green told reporters after taking part in a briefing on Hu's visit at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where Green is now a senior advisor.
Bush would prefer that Taiwan not come up during the summit, Green said, adding that Hu may "feel the same way." Nevertheless, Hu will raise Taiwan, feeling he has to do so in view of Chen's NUC decision.
"He'll raise it privately, will argue that Chen Shui-bian is a problem, and [President Bush] will read the standard US policy," citing the Taiwan Relations Act, the one-China policy, opposition to changes in the status quo, and a call for more dialogue across the Strait, Green said.
Hu may be forced to criticize Taiwan especially if he has to make concessions on such areas as the value of the Chinese yuan, a major issue for the US, or, say, North Korea, Green said.
"He may blast Taiwan to have some balance for his domestic audience, because if it all looks like he is being asked to do things and is not pushing back, that's bad politics in China," he said.
But Bush "will try to preempt that," Green added. He said the State Department comments last month in the wake of the NUC action, saying essentially that the US is satisfied that Chen's action did not change the status quo, was a signal to say to China, "don't make a big deal out of it" at the summit.
However, the US side is not likely to make any headway in trying to get China to slow or reverse its break-neck pace of ballistic missile buildup across the Strait, which now numbers some 800, increasing at a pace of nearly 100 a year.
"You can't tell China to stop building up its missiles, because they won't listen," Green feels, "But you can start by saying, `you need to explain what you're doing,' and that's probably the sweet spot to start," he said.
The missile buildup, while the "most menacing" aspect of China's recent rapid military modernization program, is only one facet that concerns Washington, Green noted.
China is also building the capacity to deny US forces access to the Strait area in case of a conflict, developing cruise missile capacity, adding Russian-built destroyers to its fleet, and "moving submarines and ships into Japan's backyard." These also deserve attention, he said.
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