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US think tank says Taiwan suffers from a lack of consensus

The US think tank Atlantic Council of the United States (ACUS), in a 20-page report published on Thursday, claimed that major antagonisms within the Taiwan polity seem to rule out any internal long-term consensus on issues such as the "one China" principle, economic ties with China, or national defense strategy.

The report, entitled Taiwan in Search of a Strategic Consensus, goes on to say that this will result in a weakening of the Taiwanese economy, increased isolation internationally, and an erosion of their strategic status should Taiwan enter negotiations with China.

A high-ranking Chinese official involved in Taiwan affairs was quoted in the report, saying that Beijing had no intention to isolate the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government and was even prepared to enter into talks with them if they retain power in the 2008 presidential elections. The official said that Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) believes isolating the DPP would be inadvisable, as it represents 30-35 percent of the Taiwanese electorate.

Hu did, however, emphasize the importance of recognizing the so-called "1992 consensus."

The report said that it was difficult to assess just how serious Chinese leaders were about talks with the DPP, or how flexible they would be regarding the conditions laid down as prerequisites, as Beijing holds that it is yet to see any intention from President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) to hold talks based on the "spirit of 1992." And, says ACUS, the possibility of talks rests very much on political will, and not on words.

According to the report, Taiwan will face many difficult choices over the next year, and is not sufficiently prepared to address its future prosperity or military strategy -- the greatest impediment to these being the lack of internal political consensus, which will weaken Taiwan's overall strategic position. Even with a change of president come the 2008 presidential elections, it may still be very difficult to reach any internal consensus, the report said.

With increased globalization, a new strategic environment is emerging, and even though the US continues to support Taiwan's democracy, Taiwan's importance to US regional strategy may well decline in the future. A continued cross-strait stalemate is likely to lead to stability within an unstable situation, and any miscalculation on the part of either side could lead to confrontation between China and Taiwan, with military confrontation being impossible to rule out, it said.

The report also pointed out that the US remains opposed to any unilateral action resulting in a change in the status quo, and continues to encourage both sides to engage in dialogue. Despite differences regarding the Taiwan question, and economic and political issues between them, the US and China still have common interests, it said.
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