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No `free lunch' courtesy of US military, analysts say

Alexander Huang, second right, deputy CEO of the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies, hosts a seminar about the Pentagon's ``Quadrennial Defense Review'' in Taipei yesterday. PHOTO: LO PEI-DER, TAIPEI TIMES

While the US' shift of naval power to the Pacific seems to suggest Taiwan would be under increased protection, it is naive to think that Taiwan can rely on the US for its defense, security analysts said yesterday.

Liu Fu-kuo (劉復國), an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of National Chengchi University, made the remarks while taking part in a seminar about the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) released early this month. The event was sponsored by a private think tank, the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies.

The QDR categorized China as an "emerging power" along with Russia and India, but said that China is the mostly likely of the three "to compete militarily with the US," as well as the nation most likely to deploy military capabilities that could threaten "traditional US military advantages."

The report also stated that the US plans to make two significant adjustments to its naval forces. First, it will transfer 60 percent of its submarine fleet to the Pacific, and would annually add two offensive subs till 2012. Second, it will ensure that six out of its 11 aircraft carrier groups are always ready for combat in the Pacific.

Liu said Taiwan would surely be under better protection as the US gradually transfers military power to the Pacific, but Taiwanese would be naive to believe the country can rely on the US for Taiwan's defense, thinking that the country could "eat a free lunch" because of the shift in focus.

Instead, Liu added, even as Japan has enhanced its defense integration with the US in support of the US-Japan security alliance, Taiwan should boost its capabilities to a level which would allow the Taiwanese military to operate jointly with the US military.

"Taiwan's military should not be a burden to the US military in the future," Liu added.

Kenneth Wang (王高成), an associate professor and director of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies of Tamkang University, said the US shift of military power toward the Pacific was designed not only to prevent military adventurism from China, but also to maintain regional stability, including coping with the threat from North Korea and terrorists in the region.

"Although Taiwan would have better protection under the US' security policy announcement, the US will put more pressure on its allies and friendly nations, such as Taiwan, to boost their own defensive capabilities," Wang added.

However, Arthur Ding (丁樹範), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations, pointed out that the QDR said the US will attempt to dissuade any military competitor from developing disruptive capabilities that could establish regional hegemony or allow hostile action against the US or other friendly countries, and it will seek to deter aggression or coercion.

In terms of China, Ding said, the QDR stated that the US has noted that China has been attempting to develop high-tech weapons, with the aim of using asymmetrical warfare to deny the US the power to enter a military conflict in the region.

Such capabilities could be used to paralyze the US military's communication systems, but the QDR indicated the US has been preparing to counter China's efforts to block US intervention, allowing it to enter the region should deterrence fail.
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