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Pan-blue merger faces challenges

It took about a year after he vetoed a merger plan between his party and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) for People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) to change tack and discuss such a possibility with his KMT counterpart. But his high-profile meeting with KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) on Monday -- in which the two agreed on cooperation but no immediate merger plan -- proved once again that KMT-PFP consolidation remains an elusive goal.

After the KMT's landslide victory and the PFP's abysmal showing in the Dec. 3 local government elections, pressure is mounting on the PFP again to merge with its larger ally. But the Ma-Soong meeting failed to achieve any breakthroughs, dashing the high expectations of some pan-blue supporters. The meeting was the second attempt to move toward a KMT-PFP merger, after a similar proposal was made last year but was scotched amid opposition from some members of both parties.

But analysts noted that combining political parties is never easy.

"According to the experience of other countries, such as Germany, the merger of two parties is always complicated and has its difficulties. It requires more effort than words," said Yang Tai-shun (楊泰順), a politics professor at Chinese Culture University.

Wang Yeh-li (王業立), a political science professor at Tunghai University, agreed.

"The prospects of party members and related regulations regarding the merger, for example, are issues to be solved," he said.

For the KMT-PFP merger, a major obstacle is the current regulations, which stipulate that any merger or split between political parties will cost the parties some of their legislator-at-large seats, because such legislative seats held by parties cannot be transferred to a merged party.

With a weakened majority in the legislature, the loss of legislator-at-large seats would damage both parties' power.

To solve the problem, the two parties are therefore pushing for the passage of a political party bill. But that could take some time, putting off the completion of a merger until 2007. Wang said that rather than an immediate merger, the two parties should for now focus on areas of cooperation.

"The burning issue for the two parties is to seek pan-blue cooperation in the legislature and victory in upcoming elections ... They can seek phased merger slowly, but should not care about personal factors," he told the Taipei Times.

The soong factor

Personal factors, however, are also a key issue in KMT-PFP unity.

As more PFP members urge a speeding up of the merger plan or their intention to bolt and join the KMT, Soong and his vice chairman Chang Chao-hsiung (張昭雄) have refused to shut down the party, insisting that the PFP "has its own ideas and an insistence on rationality" and a "midway concept" -- referring to the PFP's position on cross-strait affairs being halfway between the pro-China KMT and the pro-localization DPP.

Soong is a former KMT heavyweight who defected from the party to run for president as an independent candidate in 2000, after the KMT passed him over and picked Lien Chan (連戰) as its candidate. Soong formed the PFP after he lost that election.

The establishment of the PFP, Soong said, was an emergence of a new pan-blue power against the KMT under the rule of former president Lee Teng-hui, (李登輝), which he said was corrupt and had a negative impact on the nation.

The continued existence of the PFP -- albeit with much-diminished influence after recent elections -- highlights the public's expectation of a third political power in Taiwan, Yang said.

"Although the PFP may disappoint many, I think the public still holds some level of expectation for such a power," he said.

The party may still have some value in the nation's democracy, but Soong has damaged the PFP's future by identifying himself too closely with the party's fate, analysts said.

The decline of Soong's popularity, therefore, has had a negative impact on the party. His image has been in decline since he lost the 2000 presidential election and then another bid last year as the vice presidential candidate teamed up with former KMT chairman Lien Chan (連戰). But realizing that the party needs his personal allure and charisma to continue, Soong is still trying to make a comeback in the political world.

Quixotic bid

This time, he is reportedly planning to settle for a much smaller role by running for Taipei mayor next year -- a move that analysts say may only humiliate him.

"No matter how capable Soong is as a politician, time is not on his side. He should recognize the fact that the new generation has outdone the [old] one," Yang said.

Wu Chung-li (吳重禮), a political science professor at National Chung Cheng University, agreed that Soong's charisma and power was overshadowed by the "New KMT Movement."

"Ma's appeal as incorruptible and moral won widespread support in the Dec. 3 elections," he said. "It is clear that the KMT's old era represented by Soong and Lee has been replaced by a new power."

According to a poll conducted by the Chinese-language newspaper, the United Daily News, on Dec. 8, more than 50 percent of Taipei interviewees said they will not support Soong as a Taipei mayoral candidate. If he does run, about 35 percent said he should be nominated by both the KMT and PFP, while another 20 percent thought he should win KMT primaries first.

With a possible mass exodus of party members and a slim possibility of winning the Taipei mayor election, analysts said it might be best for Soong to stop grasping at political power and make a graceful exit from the stage -- in order to at last earn some respect.

also see story:
KMT-PFP merger no more than empty talk

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