Military trends in the Taiwan Strait are evolving in an unfavorable direction that may ultimately trump political considerations and limit US ability to aid Taiwan, former US officials said during a private US-Japan-Taiwan strategic meeting held in Taipei last month.
According to a discussion paper drafted by the US participants at the closed-door meeting, a copy of which was obtained by the Taipei Times, "Given developing PLA [People's Liberation Army] capabilities, as well as deteriorating Taiwan capabilities, some analysts in the United States fear we are on the cusp of a tipping point where the PLA developed a capability to attack Taiwan and accomplish its political objectives in a speedy enough manner that the US could not reasonably expect to get to the fight in time, even in the event of a political decision to engage."
Among the seven US participants at the US-Japan-Taiwan Strategic Dialogue held by the Taiwan Thinktank at the end of last month were Randall Schriver, deputy assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs; Robin Sakoda, a former Pentagon official; Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, and John Tkacik, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
SERIOUS DENT
The paper said the Legislative Yuan's allowing the special arms procurement budget to languish has seriously dented the country's will for national defense, which is making it more difficult for the US to justify its pledge to defend Taiwan.
The paper said there were two "tipping points" in the military equation on how the US would intervene in a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
"The first tipping point relates [to] the PLA's capability to inflict sufficient damage on US forces to significantly raise the cost of US intervention on US forces," the paper read, adding that "many analysts believe that Chinese acquisition of modern cruise missiles and submarines [both anti-aircraft carrier capable] have moved us beyond the first tipping point -- there is no longer envisioned a low cost US intervention."
The second tipping point relates to the PLA developing the capability to attack Taiwan before the US can "get to the fight."
The US participants believed the military trend line is approaching that second point.
DIVIDED NATION
They said the lack of consensus in Taiwan to pass the special arms budget has restrained Washington from showing more support for Taiwan's security.
Although the US is abiding by the Taiwan Relations Act to maintain Washington's capacity to resist any resort to force that would jeopardize the security of Taiwan, "the US support, however, is predicated on Taiwan's demonstration that it takes its defense seriously," the paper said.
BAD HABITS
As for how Taiwan can contribute to the US-Japan security alliance, the paper said Taipei has "three very bad habits" that compromise its standing with its defense partners.
First, "It regularly exaggerates the level of its existing military and intelligence interactions with Washington and Tokyo -- exaggerations which have the unhelpful effect of irritating Beijing.
"Second, it gives the impression that it is not taking seriously its own responsibilities for defense as coastal defense has eroded, command and control centers, submarine bases, air strips, communications nodes, fuel and supply storage facilities and the like go unhardened, conscription terms for draftees shortened, professional pilot, engineering, technical personnel allowed to drop," the paper said.
Third, "it allows the languishing `special budget' items to become an irritant in Washington," the paper said.
The paper also outlined opportunities for Taiwan to contribute to the US-Japan alliance, such as continuing to upgrade its naval and air forces to complement that of the US and Japan in real time, and reinforcing the surveillance and reconnaissance cooperation between the two countries, which "has proven useful in processing real time data on Chinese military operations."
The US is also interested in making Taiwan a larger partner in the procurement of certain systems to help reduce its own budget, the paper indicated.
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