Pundits dissect relations with the US and China

With the commotion slowly dying down after Saturday's elections, cross-strait observers yesterday re-examined the nation's ties with China and the US, asking the question that now looms large for the government: Where do we go from here?

The question is particularly difficult to answer in light of election results that promise legislative gridlock, especially on bills as divisive as the US arms procurement package and constitutional reform. While domestic consensus has proven elusive on both bills, election observers at a Formosa Foundation forum yesterday in Taipei pointed to the significant impact that both bills will have on ties with the US and China.

ARMS PROCUREMENT

"There is a great deal of annoyance in Washington over [the arms procurement bill]," said June Teufel Dreyer, head of the department of political science at the University of Miami. "That it is caught up in partisan quibbling does not help."

She explained that it "costs something for Washington to offer Taiwan arms," noting the US had to deal with Chinese anger over the arms package.

Shelley Rigger, a Brown Associate Professor of Political Science, echoed Dreyer's sentiments yesterday.

"Many people in the US wonder if Taiwan has any plans not only for its own defense but also to protect its own interests in this dilemma," Rigger said. "The mood in Washington is critical and quite irritable on this issue."

Local cross-strait experts also stressed the need for serious post-election reflection on the arms bill.

"The pan-blues argue that [the arms procurement bill] is a waste of money," said Institute for National Policy Research executive director Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政). "But after the elections, the US will be closely watching to see how the pan-blues and pan-greens sit down and handle this."

Lo explained that the pan-blue camp's resistance to the bill could have been interpreted as opposition for the sake of opposition during the runup to the legislative elections.

"Whether Taiwan has the political will to defend itself will affect whether the US will come to Taiwan's aid," Lo said. "The pan-blues will have to come to face the reality of US pressure [on this matter]."

Ross Munro, co-author of The Coming Conflict with China and director of the Asian Studies Center for Security Studies in Washington, also drove that point home by describing scenarios under which the US would be unable or unwilling to come to Taiwan's aid in the event of an attack by China.

"Some believe the US will always come to Taiwan's rescue if China attacks, but I think this is a reckless assumption," Munro said. "How do you define `attack'?"

Munro noted that action by China could fall well short of a full-blown missile attack or military blockade.

"[It could] be some kind of symbolic or pinprick attack to humiliate Taiwan," Munro said. "[China] could seize an island, destroy unoccupied military assets ... and follow this with an assertion that China reserves the right to do it again."

That would be a way for China to humiliate Taiwan without triggering a US reaction, he said.

"This could happen in a matter of two hours. Under strained relations, can you be sure the US will come to Taiwan's rescue?" Munro asked.

He further predicted that "pinprick attacks" were a real danger, and could happen as soon as next year.

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

There were also predictions yesterday that a divided legislature would slow down the process of constitutional reform.

"There is no denying that [President] Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) made this election a referendum on issues such as the constitutional reform," said Daniel Lynch, an assistant professor at the University of Southern California's School of International Relations. "On Saturday, it did not resonate with a lot of voters."

However, lackluster support for constitutional reform in the elections was, according to Examination Yuan President Yao Chia-wen (姚嘉文), due primarily to the need for additional campaigning on the matter. He argued that the issue had been brought prematurely to the ballot box.

"Constitutional reform should not begin with the legislature, nor with the Presidential Office -- it should begin with society. The idea needs to mature first," he said. "It's like getting married. Dating always takes the longest. Getting married is a quick process. Getting the girl, persuading her -- that's where the difficulty lies," Yao said.

"And the girl's relatives and friends -- If none of them like you, your marriage is not going to be easy," Yao said, referring to the need to build and maintain good ties with the US.

He predicted that constitutional reform would be more appropriately implemented in 2008, two years after Chen's goal of sending the issue to referendum in 2006.

While the pan-green camp's promise to deliver a "constitution that fits" seems to have met with a setback in the elections, there is no denying that there exists a real need to address aspects of the Constitution that no longer "fit."

"In most countries, three [government branches] will have power. To suggest that all five have power could be potentially harmful," Jacques deLisle, a professor of law at the University of Pennsylvania, told the Taipei Times yesterday. He noted that the ambiguity over whether Taiwan has a presidential or parliamentary system would have to be addressed at some point and that a reconsideration of the five-branch structure currently stipulated in the Constitution was necessary.

"The problem with talk about constitutional replacement or the role of a referendum, even a limited role ... is that the world worries it will be instrumental to pushing independence in a formal way," he said.

While momentum toward constitutional reform is expected to encounter friction in the legislature, election observers yesterday said that the fundamental concerns that led to calls for reform will not disappear overnight.

"The US and China can feel relieved for now," Lo said. "The constitutional reform process will slow down. But this drive and dynamic for constitutional reform exists. Sooner or later, it must be faced."