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Analysts ponder what Chen will say on Sunday

Top cross-strait analysts and policymakers yesterday predicted that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) would most likely avoid challenging the "one China" principle in his much anticipated Double Ten National Day speech on Sunday. They said he would instead seek to strike a balance between offering an olive branch to China and satisfying constituents in the year-end legislative elections.

"Basically, Chen will probably stay away from commenting on the `one China' principle, focusing instead on areas more likely to see change," Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman Chiu Tai-san (邱太三) said.

Chen's repeated reminders over the past week that he would be making an important and "constructive" announcement regarding cross-strait relations has had academics and policymakers guessing.

Both Chiu and council Chairman Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) admitted to being in the dark about the nature of Chen's announcement.

However, analysts at a forum yesterday attempted to narrow down the possibilities by asking what could be said in order to bring about cross-strait change.

Chao Chun-shan (趙春山), a professor at Tamkang University's Institute of China Studies, said Chen would most likely pose a specific and concrete proposal.

He said that no breakthroughs could be achieved by reiterating broad political concepts.

"Statements on the `one China' principle are not going to lead to a breakthrough at this point. Talk on peaceful development needs to have some sort of content, and it seems that Taiwan can take the lead now by proposing a concrete idea," he said.

Chao said that direct links, a cross-strait hotline as part of a confidence-building program, and the arms package with the US were examples of concrete issues that Chen could mention.

"Chen's proposals must satisfy all those anticipating his speech, but at the same time, he cannot concede too much with legislative elections just around the corner. He will have to find a balance between these two concerns," Chao said.

Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政), executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research, however, said it was difficult to determine who Chen's intended audience was.

"The audience could be international or domestic. It could also tie into the US presidential elections. His speech might not even be primarily aimed at China," Lo said.

He said Chen's speech would be a response to the statement issued by the Chinese Communist Party and the Beijing government's Taiwan Affairs Office in May.

"Keeping in mind that Chen's speech will be a response to the May 17 statement, what part of that statement can allow for change?" Lo said.

He suggested that Chen's comments would likely be an effort to establishing a peace framework, a concept voiced by both sides of the Strait at different points.

Lo predicted that Chen would focus on confidence-building measures, saying that some such measures did not require reciprocity and could be implemented by one party as a goodwill gesture.

However, Wang Kung-yi (王崑義), an associate professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, said that cross-strait exchanges couldn't escape the shadow of the "one China" principle.
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