China's development of advanced ballistic missiles will become a serious threat to the cross-strait status quo and crucially endanger the nation's security within 12 years, Minister of National Defense Lee Jye (
To promote the government's NT$610 billion arms procurement budget, Lee was invited by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to brief the party's legislative caucus on the cross-strait military situation.
DPP Legislator Lee Wen-chuang (李文忠), who attended the closed-door meeting, told reporters that in accordance with intelligence information provided by the US, China's expansion of military power would break through the current military balance and become a "reliable threat" in 2015.
"In addition, China is actively developing ground-based and air launched HongNiao [Redbird] series cruise missiles, 200 of which are expected to be completed within one to two years," Lee Wen-chuang said.
The accuracy of these missiles is within 10m, making it easy for China to launch a decapitation strike against Taiwan's political and economic centers, he said citing defense ministry reports.
More in development
According to ministry figures compiled by Lee Wen-chung, China already has 600 M-type missiles, and is adding 50 to 75 each year. He said China has also developed unmanned aircraft, including an estimated 90 HARPY aircraft.
China also has an undetermined number of surveillance aircraft, including the WZ2000, W50, and HW1. New models of unmanned aircraft will also be developed in the future.
The defense ministry also outlined China's capability in navigational satellites, saying Beijing already has a first generation Beidou Global Orbiting Navigation Satellite system, with a second generation likely to be launched in 2008, providing even greater precision.
* HongNiao [Redbird] series cruise missiles, 200 of which are expected to be completed within one to two years. These are ground-based missiles and are accurate to within 10m
* 50 to 75 M-type missiles are expected to be added every year
* Unmanned planes, including an estimated 90 HARPY aircraft
* Surveillance aircraft, including the WZ2000, W50 and HW1 models
Lee Wen-chung said the US has already indicated that by 2015 there will be a significant imbalance between Taiwan and China, leaving Taiwan without an effective security guarantee.
Three scenarios
According to sources at the government's national security department, once China decides to launch a surgical decapitation strike on Taiwan, there are three possible scenarios.
The first would be similar to the US' attack on Libya's Muammar Qaddaffi, striking the presidential office and other official residences. The second would be an infiltration of special forces to capture and assassinate Taiwan's leaders. The third would be to use regular troops to take over Taiwan's command and control center.
"The [defense ministry] therefore needs to buy more weapons for ground-air defense, especially the Avenger pedestal-mounted Stinger anti-aircraft missile, which is among the best portable surface-to-air missiles in the world," the source said.
The military has already deployed 12 Stinger vehicles around Taipei to maintain security in the capital. These were originally to be temporarily stationed in the city until after the March 20 presidential election. However, the military decided to permanently deploy the vehicles in the city to cope with a possible terrorist attack or strike by China.
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