Forum says China might rethink its policy on Taiwan

Beijing fine-tune its Taiwan policy if the pan-green camp wins more legislative seats than the pan-blue camp in the year-end legislative elections, analysts said yesterday at a forum predicting a change in China's Taiwan policy after the elections.

"If the pan-green camp dominates in the number of legislative seats after the December elections, I believe it would be a good turning point in the deadlock between Taiwan and China," Chou Jih-shine (周繼祥) said yesterday. Chou is a professor of the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University.

"But we have to observe how good the chances of this happening will be, since Taiwan will launch the reform of its Constitution next year, which might again put pressure on cross-strait relations," Chou said.

Think seriously

Chou said that Beijing will need to think seriously and practically about the possibility of the pan-green camp winning long-term rule of Taiwan if the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), the two pro-independent parties, capture over 50 percent of the legislative seats in December.

"Beijing will have to correct its Taiwan policy and increase its contact and understanding of the pan-green camp, that is for sure," Chou said.

However, Chou said, Beijing's leaders would be reluctant to make a U-turn on China's Taiwan policy, since China still needs to pay attention to its domestic political stability and will not easily change any of its fundamental policies.

Meanwhile, deputy secretary-general of the semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation, Yen Wan-ching (顏萬進), said that he didn't think the legislative elections in December will have much influence on China's Taiwan policy, since China has lost its momentum on the policy, as illustrated by its recent remarks about Taiwan.

"Taiwan's legislative elections are only one of the variables that affect cross-strait relations, but I think the outcome of the US presidential election in November would be more crucial to cross-strait issues," Yen said.

"If the TSU, who takes a more resolute stance on the issue of Taiwan independence, is the major factor helping the pan-green camp win the legislative elections, Chen's government will need to make concessions to the TSU's China policy, which strongly resists China.

"But I also think there will be no specific campaigning theme in the December elections. The concern now of every party is only defeat or victory," Yen said.

However, Yen said that Taiwan should not misjudge China's ability to transform its anxiety over Taiwan into political pressure on other Asians countries, like Beijing has done when Taiwan passed its Referendum Law (公民投票法) last November.

Tung Li-wen (董立文), vice president of the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies, agreed with Yen's viewpoints.

He said that no matter which political power wins the legislative election, China will not take any policy of "differentiated treatment" to Taiwan.