Following the cancelation of Chinese military drills, a surprising turn of events leading to the termination of live fire drills on Taiwan's part has analysts divided as to how significant the move is to cross-strait relations.
"You have to calculate whether Beijing did or did not [cancel its drills] before you make any decisions," said Alexander Huang (黃介正), former vice chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) and now a professor at Tamkang University.
After reports of China's cancelation of the Dongshan Island military drills last week, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) followed suit and called off the annual Han Kuang live fire military drills originally scheduled for Sept. 9 in what officials called an extension of reciprocal goodwill.
While government officials, including MAC Chairman Joseph Wu (吳釗燮), admitted soon after Chen's decision was made public that no formal confirmation of China's decision to cancel its war games was received -- the decision was nonetheless defended as a move to reduce cross-strait tensions, regardless of Beijing's stance.
"Reducing cross-strait tension is our responsibility and China's also," Huang said, noting that the US welcomed the decision to cancel military drills.
However, Chen's critics were quick to call the cancellation of military drills premature, given the failure of the government to verify whether China's decision was a gesture of goodwill, or even related to the cross-strait situation at all.
"Not only was [Taiwan's] cancelation premature, it wasn't reciprocal -- the Han Kuang exercise is a nationwide annual defense drill, whereas the Dongshan exercises are regional in scope, offense oriented, and conducted several times each year," said Holmes Liao (
Arthur Ding (丁樹範), a military affairs expert and research fellow at the National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations said that while the Han Kuang exercises are high-level drills for Taiwan, China's Dongshan Island exercises are not necessarily so.
"It is very clear that our enemy is China, but for Beijing, the situation is more complex. They face more threats. The Dongshan Island military drills are aimed at Taiwan, but it is just one of many military drills that might be aimed at sending a message to other nations," Ding said.
Liao expressed skepticism about the assumption that the move was an act of good will toward Taiwan. He suggested that other factors could have led to the cancelation, such as the typhoons that have hit the region recently, or a possible power struggle within the Communist Party.
"Beijing has never extended goodwill to Taiwan ? that they would do it now is next to impossible," he said.
Whether or not Beijing actually called off the war games out of goodwill seemed to be beside the point, with experts disagreeing on their fundamental outlook on the communist giant's cross-strait strategy.
"Cross-strait relations is not based on the extension of goodwill, but rather on strength," Liao said.
"If we purchase many weapons and don't perform drills, then what's it all worth?" he asked.
Ding took a similar stance, saying that "peace requires strength."
But how much strength is enough for peace?
"I'm not talking about the amount of weapons we need, but the mental preparedness we should have. It's about psychological defense, and Taiwan's psychological defense is not there," Liao said, adding that the Han Kuang drills as they are currently conducted do not reflect the psychological preparedness necessary in case of an invasion.
"The Han Kuang exercises decrease in scale every year while preparation takes longer. The live fire drills take three months to prepare for. The training scenario also is becoming more and more unrealistic," he said.
"No one fights war like this anymore. This is from Napoleon's time. Taiwan's combat readiness is problematic," he added.
However, experts also pointed out that the nation's military readiness was not significantly compromised by the calling off of this year's live fire portion of the Han Kuang drill. Although the live fire aspect of the exercise was canceled, other aspects of the drill went on as scheduled.
"Taiwan simply cancelled the last and final portion ... it's a political gesture," Huang said, adding that the cancelled exercises did not involve the testing of new weapons, but existing systems and equipment.
"The cancelation was a gesture to show good face for our friends in Washington and to take measures to pacify cross-strait tensions," Huang said, noting that the decision was announced while Chen was traveling abroad.
Ding pointed to internal affairs in his interpretation of Chen's decision.
Diplomatically, a few recent events have been unfavorable to Taiwan's international status -- recent remarks made by Australia's foreign minister and Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍), for example.
"All these have led people in Taiwan to worry," Ding said, characterizing Chen's cancelation as a political move aimed at placating the Taiwanese people.
No matter what the move was intended to achieve at home, Huang said it was a win-win situation abroad. "The US appreciates what we did and now the ball is in [China's] court."
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