President Chen Shui-bian has decided to resign his post as chairman of the DPP after the December legislative elections in order to adopt a detached and neutral position from which to push for constitutional change, but this has prompted criticism both from inside and outside the party that he goes back on his word from one day to the next.
But analysts say that the purpose of Chen's strategy lies in considering the balance of power within the party and arrangements for a succession.
"With factionalism within the party becoming more and more intense, and the New Tide faction dominating, President Chen worries that, in two years' time, as the party prepares to fight the 2008 presidential election, there will be even more ferocious in-fighting, even leading to a split," a top aide to the president said.
"As a result he must plan ahead and organize personnel appropriately," said one of the president's close advisors, "and the president simply needs to give up his party work, to vacate that post, so that, first, he can expand his role as a detached arbitrator and second, so that those who wish to succeed him get more experience and a higher profile."
Senior political columnist and analyst Hu Wen-huei said that, on the face of it, Chen's withdrawal from party affairs and return to the lofty position of "president for all the people," that he announced four years ago, may help him to promote constitutional reform next year from a position above party and factional politics.
But, he said, the president's constantly changing position on the separation or combination of the ruling party and the government can only damage his standing as head of state.
Looking back over Chen's administration, said Hu, because of the carrying out of tasks by stages and constant changes in methods, there have been many flip-flops and 180-degree changes in policy, among which one of those leaving the deepest impression has been on the question of whether the president should serve concurrently as party chairman.
"When President Chen was first elected in 2000, he strongly criticized the former KMT government for placing the party at the forefront of government affairs and making the party all-important," Hu said.
In order to attract middle-ground voters, Chen agreed, if elected, to withdraw from party affairs and, indeed, following his election on March 18th 2000, he proclaimed himself a "president for all the people" and withdrew from the committees dealing with party affairs.
But because the new government lacked administrative experience and because Chen faced a lot of obstacles imposed by the opposition parties, Chen refused to share power with his party colleagues, giving DPP legislators an excuse to attack the Executive Yuan, to the extent that the party's central organs have seriously drawn into question the competence of the cabinet.
"Internal and external pressure for him to stand down have rendered Chen unable to push his agenda and forced him to modify his position and gradually restore support for the party system and his own party's factions," said Hu.
In July 2002, at the party National Party Congress, the president's staff and the party's main faction leaders reached a consensus that the party's charter would be changed to the effect that "a party member who becomes president has an unfettered right to serve concurrently as party chairman."
They spoke of the "synchronizing the party and administration to explain Chen's change of heart to the people, and to argue that his taking control of the party machine once again was so that "the party's Central Standing Committee will become the Presidential Office, Executive Yuan, communication platform for party faction leaders and strategic mechanism for consensus building."
"After President Chen began to serve as party chairman, he did have some effect initially in reducing conflicts between the party and the government and in helping the promotion of cabinet policy through its legislative caucus to proceed smoothly. The party's central committee was emphasizing the importance of its role that year," said Hu.
"But in fact, in order to constrain the influence of the factions, major policy and matter of party and government coordination are all conducted in the Presidential Office. The party intelligentsia discovered quickly that combining party and government was just for Chen to consolidate his power, a strategy for the moment to suppress opposition from within the party. The central committee quickly united in realization that it had no influence over policy debate and formulation," said Hu.
Particularly when Chen was reelected, consolidating his leadership, and many of the outstanding talents from the party factions were appointed to positions in government, senior figures within the party took the view that the temporary expedient the combining of party and government had finally outlived its usefulness; Chen no longer wanted to lead party affairs, so his advisors began to prepare for party reform and to prepare the future allocation of power.
"President Chen hopes that in future the party will simply serve as an electoral machine, but there are those who say that the party should indeed move more towards government but that the participation of city mayors and county governors ought to be strengthened so that the central committee becomes a platform for communication between them and the central government," said Chen Sung-shan, civil service commissioner and the man who served as director of Chen's legislative office when Chen was a legislator.
Chen Sung-shan argued that factionalism within the DPP can never completely be resolved but that the weakening of the party machine may serve to weaken the factions, enabling, most importantly, Chen to rearrange the party's systems and organize the process for succession to the presidency.
"Premier Yu Shyi-kun already has a big stage [in the Executive Yuan], while Secretary General of the Presidential Office Su Tseng-chang, is closest to the center of power, and Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) has successfully mobilized his followers to grab seats on the DPP's Central Standing Committee, which may be regarded as his ambition to serve as chairman again," Chen Sung-shan said.
Before the president relinquishes his chairmanship he should let these three potential successors serve as party vice chairmen to see who is best suited to succeed to the chairmanship and to enable the president to conduct party reform," Chen Sung-shan said.
In this way, Chen will be able to return to the role of head of state, transcending, to his advantage, the confrontation between the pan-green and pan-blue camps and leading the constitutional reform effort, Chen Sung-shan said.
He will be able to adopt a position of "chief executive" in the issue of successor, overseeing the performance of his three "managers," Su, Hsieh and Yu, all of whom will have a stage on which to perform, and one of whom he will eventually single out for his support.
National Taiwan University professor of history, Lee Yung-chih (
But, he said, Chen's excessive "temporary" modifications, reduplications and retractions followed by reinstatements had already damaged the image that he ought to have as head of state -- one of maturity and constancy.
"President Chen has changed his mind again, in order to reform the party and the nation's constitution. He will not continue to serve concurrently as party chairman but will return to the single role as head of state. This may bring satisfaction in many quarters, but if we look at the matter from a historical perspective, Chen should remain above this kind of repeated change of heart in order to command more respect and tolerance," said Lee.
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