Washington and Taipei should consider establishing a regular communication channel for high-ranking officials in order to increase mutual understanding and avoid surprises, Lin Wen-cheng (林文程), senior advisor to the National Security Council, said yesterday.
Speaking at the conference, which was entitled "New Vision of Taiwan Strategic Security Based on Taiwan Entity" and was hosted by the Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect Foundation, Lin reiterated President Chen Shui-bian's (
Saying that Taiwan-US ties were in trouble due to poor communication, Lin said Taipei is afraid Washington might sacrifice Taiwan when it needs China's support.
"Taiwan believes the Bush administration is gradually tilting toward Beijing," the official added.
Facing military threats from China, Taiwan has imported more than US$20 billion worth of weapon systems in the past decade and will spend about US$20 billion to buy the Patriot PAC-3, command and control system upgrades, and eight submarines in the coming years, according to Lin.
Qualitative superiority
China has dramatically increased its defense budget and has begun acquiring advanced weapons systems from Russia and Israel since 1989, he said.
"Many experts have estimated that Taiwan's armed forces, which are overwhelmed quantitatively by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), will also be surpassed qualitatively in a decade, unless Taiwan can further streamline its defense industry or acquire more sophisticated weapons from foreign suppliers," Lin said.
Taiwan's missile defense system can be overwhelmed by the PLA's ballistic missiles. At present, Taiwan has deployed 200 modified "Patriot" PAC-2 anti-missiles in northern Taiwan to protect the capital. According to some projections, it will take two PAC-2 missiles to intercept one Chinese ballistic missile.
Despite the deployment, Lin voiced concern about Taiwan's defensive capabilities. "Even if Taiwan's anti-missile defenses achieve 100 percent interception, they can only knock down 100 missiles from China. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the PAC-2 or PAC-3 batteries can do a perfect job," Lin said.
To improve the country's counter-strike capability Lin said Taiwan will bolster its missile defense system by improving passive defense measures and deploying additional PAC-3 batteries.
Theater defense
"In addition, Taiwan has expressed its interest in joining the theater missile defense system being developed for Northeast Asia. But offense is the best defense. Taiwan needs to develop some kind of offensive capability," Lin said.
"To develop medium-range ballistic missiles is one of the options that Taiwan should consider to increase its deterrent power," he said.
Analyzing Taiwan's military preparadeness in the event of a possible Chinese attack, Lin said for China, a military strike would be very costly.
"There is no guarantee [a Chinese attack] can succeed. Even if China takes Taiwan by force, it might face more problems than it has solved in the nation," he said.
Beijing's interest is best served by unifying with Taiwan without shedding blood. Watering down Washington's support for Taiwan is one of Beijing's tactics to achieve unification with Taiwan, Lin said.
Lo Chih-cheng (
At the same time, said Lo, China's rising power and influence are playing an increasingly significant role in "a democratizing Asia," which, in the course of this year, has seen and will see a series of elections in a number of countries.
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