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Poking the US and the Chinese beast

Wednesday, May 05, 2004, Page 4

Doug Bandow says Taiwan needs to pay more attention to the quality of its communication with the US. PHOTO: CHIANG YING-YING, TAIPEI TIMES

Taipei Times: What is the Bush administration's view of President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) re-election?

Doug Bandow: I am sure that from the simple point of stability, the administration doesn't want trouble. So I suspect most people in the administration would have preferred a Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) victory, just on the theory that it [would have been] less troublesome -- not on substance of argument, not on the merit. They have a lot on their plate. Iraq is a complete disaster; the North Korean problem is not solved. They don't need any problems in the Taiwan Strait.

Now the perception in Washington is that if Chen steps out of place and pokes the China beast, then ... who needs this? This is understandable. Washington feels it has handed out a security guarantee -- and the country then uses that security guarantee and surprises them.

But I do think that there are some disagreements in the administration. There had been a reservoir of goodwill toward Taiwan, and it's just been that in the last few years that reservoir is running a bit dry, because they've been so focused on other things. And they really perceive that they need China. They don't want a veto of UN resolutions. They are very concerned about Korea -- they correctly perceive that China has the most leverage against North Korea. It may not be enough to solve the issue, but if you are looking within the region, probably Beijing has the most [influence]. So I think it will be [helpful for the] US that the China-Taiwan relationship remain smooth, and that Taiwan be very low key. Then they can cooperate with you on other issues.

TT: If Democrat presidential hopeful John Kerry is elected, what do you think the administration's approach to Taiwan will be?

Bandow: I think a starting point for policy with Kerry is [former US president Bill] Clinton. I don't think Kerry has ever thought deeply about Taiwan. He has thought about China, I am sure, because it is hard not to think about China. It is interesting because his current anti-China campaign and rhetoric in some sense should be helpful to Taiwan. But again I look at the Clinton experience, which was that the moment Clinton was elected, everything changed around. I think Kerry would be more difficult for Taiwan. People perceive that China is relatively more important. And to some degree it will depend on Congress. They will uphold policy that will uphold the Taiwan Relations Act, but you won't have the same level of affinity, and there will be probably more rhetoric, more distance from the administration in Taiwan, and there will be more pressure on the referendum and constitutional amendments.

TT: Do you have advice for Chen?

Bandow: If Chen can communicate clearly to the administration that he recognizes Washington's concerns and that he understands the need for stability, then this would make Washington feel better, [knowing] that Chen really understands the concerns of Washington. And then there's the extent to which Chen can indicate that he is willing to change policy -- that you'll still hold a referendum but be willing to change the wording of the referendum.

I think the emphasis is on constitutional change. The fear clearly is constitutional change, at some point. It means you have to define what Taiwan is, what the community is, the issues of name and flag. But if you communicate to Washington that constitutional changes will be carried out [within a] narrow framework, then we won't raise all these other issues. Right now, Washington needs to perceive that it has been heard.

There's criticism of Taiwan even by conservative activists who were previously pro-Taiwan. This is significant, because this is the Taiwan base in American politics, and you are getting criticism there. You sure are getting some distance from people who ought to be your friends. So you should want to reassure them.

The second thing is the notion of trying to demonstrate to Washington that Taiwan is an asset. I think [the argument] could be humanitarian or it could be other things. It could be the notion that the US wants democracy around the world. Taiwan shows how a country can move to democracy: Within 20 years, Taiwan has moved from martial law and end of a dictatorship into elections, and the opposition wins, and you can weather all kinds of controversy.

Washington can use symbols of democratic change and Taiwan is a role model for that. China matters a lot -- the UN veto, North Korea and economic interaction -- and Taiwan doesn't have that same [leverage]. At the moment the US is desperate for better relations with China, and in that context Taiwan is in danger. Taiwan is in danger of being marginalized.

You've got to realize that this administration has a very short attention span, and right now it is in a lot of trouble with Iraq, and the Bush administration wants to be re-elected. When they look at Taiwan they look at it very superficially.

That is why it is critical for Chen to communicate to Washington, "I heard you." And small things are very symbolic. Like the Washington Post interview with Chen and Chen's administration putting out statements. [Washington has] the perception that Chen, poking at the China beast, seems to be a bit reckless, so everything is interpreted in that framework.

TT: How do you think the international community perceives post-election opposition to the election result?

Bandow: For the international community, what is important is that there is the perception of a fair process. So there is a perception that the charges are being investigated. I do think that there is enough legitimacy there -- there is a court-ordered recount and an investigation into the shooting. But the tough question is the KMT, and whether they can accept an adverse result after the recount and the investigation into the shooting.

If they don't, I worry that the other countries will worry not about the fairness of the procedure but the stability of the country. I've talked to a lot of Americans who think that the shooting looks pretty weird, but I am yet to find an American who thought that if he was to stage a shooting he would stage it on a moving vehicle. But the perception of the process is more important than the result.

TT: To what extent has democracy and the rule of law been tarnished by the ongoing dispute?

Bandow: I think what is critical is an acceptance of the result. That what happened after the election, in terms of the huge rhetoric, violence or what have you, is forgotten by the inauguration if a recount is held. If Chen won and the investigation bears it out, then the opposition has to accept that. What happened in the US in the end is that the Democrats accepted that the process works. President George W Bush -- they may not like him, but he is inaugurated, he is president, he is legal, no one is filing law suits saying he can't sign laws.

Yet the KMT does not accept the result. There are continuing controversies and protests. I hope that the KMT does think about the stability of Taiwan's political system, and that it is not in Taiwan's interest to continue delegitimizing the system, especially where a potentially hostile China is right across the Strait.
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