Despite the continuing resistance to President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) re-election victory, which caused extreme social divisions within Taiwan, the March 20 election has been one which Taiwan and Asia's fate depended on, said former Japanese ambassador to Thailand and director of the Okazaki Institute, Hisahiko Okazaki (岡崎久彥).
Okazaki made the remark yesterday in a speech entitled A bright future for Taiwan at a Taiwan Advocates' seminar in Tainan.
PHOTO: HUANG PO-LANG, TAIPEI TIMES
"The election has prevented any possibility of cross-strait unification," Okazaki said to his audience, which filled the hall of the Tainan Municipal Cultural Center, with hundreds more sitting on stools outside the building.
"A fact shown by election trends is that in the future, whether Taiwan's diplomatic policy continues to maintain the status quo or moves toward independence, thereby standing up to China, it will be impossible for any unificationist party to take over the government.
"This means that China is left with the option of military aggression to attain its unification goal, but this would mean confrontation with the US," he said.
Okazaki thinks that for Asia's long-term stability and the Chinese people's peace and prosperity, China should give up on ideas of unification with Taiwan.
"Today the only existing empire is that of China, and if China fails to maintain its empire while seizing Taiwan, it will also lose the inner-Mongolian region and Xinjiang (新疆).
"Amidst the upsurge of Taiwanese identity today, China has lost its chance to play a manipulation policy," he said.
In the future, perhaps China could still assist Taiwan in gaining entry into the UN, in exchange for Taiwan bowing to an abstract "One China." But in this process, regardless of whether Taiwan admits to a "One China" or not, China may give what is the equivalent of consent to Taiwan's bid to enter the UN, Okazaki said.
He said he strongly opposes the attitude taken by the US administration during the Clinton era, ie, if Taiwan unilaterally announces independence or provokes China, the US will not assist Taiwan.
"Not only will the US media and its congress intervene," should China attack Taiwan after a democratically-induced declaration of independence, "such a stance is equivalent to the US cheating China into war," Okazaki said.
"The Korean war is a good example. The question is whether the US will repeat its mistake," he said.
Okazaki said there are two things important to Taiwan. The first is to maintain a state of military alertness to prevent an unexpected attack by China from succeeding.
The second is to continue making diplomatic efforts to pave the way for Taiwan toward the day it intends to move towards independence and counter objections by the US, Okazaki said.
Okazaki is optimistic that pan-green legislators will win more than 50 percent of the seats at the year-end legislature election, "as long as the current 50 percent support can be maintained. It is likely that the Chinese Nationalist party (KMT) may have changes within the party before the election.
"From the medium to long-term perspective, the pro-independence force will become stronger and shape up. Even pro-status-quo groups will overlook the value of maintaining the status quo, but will try to find a safe strategy by second-guessing the US and China's stance. I think that Taiwan is likely to become independent in the medium to long run," Okazaki said.
"After several rounds of legislative and presidential elections, the fact that the Taiwanese people would want independence could not be ignored any longer," he said.
Okazaki predicts that the US may amend its Taiwan Relations Act in Congress and discuss the proposals of assigning ambassadors to Taiwan and supporting the country's bid to enter the UN.
"Although the US administration may exercise its veto right and the US Constitution bestows the US president with diplomatic authority, the US is still a country that values public opinion. If the majority of the public supports Taiwan, the US government can only tag along to their wishes," he said.
What stance will Japan take?
"It is hard to imagine that Japan would act before seeing a decision by the US. But a possible logical theory is that, as the Japanese prime minister has no veto right according to the Constitution, as long as both political parties pass the legislative proposal in the congress, the process will be easier than in the US," Okazaki said.
Okazaki concluded his speech with a word of caution.
"The developments in Taiwan will not be reversed, so there is no need to proceed hastily from now on. It would work against Taiwan if it gives the US the impression of acting with too much haste.
"All in all, under the circumstances that Taiwan could be swallowed up by its huge Chinese neighbor, protecting and maintaining democratic freedom is a life-and-death survival pre-requisite. Continuing the development of democracy in Taiwan is the best route to freedom," Okazaki said.
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