In the wake of their election defeat, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) will split up and its alliance with the People First Party (PFP) will then collapse, presidential National Policy Advisor Michael Hsiao (
"The marriage isn't going to survive for another six months," Hsiao told a seminar on the implication of the election and referendum results.
"My first scenario is that the KMT will split again, even if Lien Chan (
"Then there will be another split between Lien Chan and James Soong (
First, the "Taiwan-conscious faction" within the KMT would bolt. "It is impossible for the KMT to be united again," Hsiao said.
The disintegration of the KMT and subsequently the pan-blue alliance, in Hsiao's eyes, would have serious implications for the Legislative Yuan elections coming up in December.
He expects the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to gain more seats in the legislature, but says that does not mean the party will "automatically" get a majority. For former president Lee Teng-hui's (
Another panelist, Dafydd Fell, a lecturer in Taiwan Studies at Britain's School of Oriental and African studies, however, disagreed with Hsiao.
"I think the KMT is likely to keep its alliance with the PFP. To not do so would be suicide," he said.
Fell added that the DPP would "struggle to increase its legislators by much," so the government would remain divided after the December vote.
Hsiao predicted that Premier Yu Shyi-kun would retain his position at least until December.
"He has worked so hard; if you kick him out it's not nice," he said.
Panelist Gary Rawnsley, of the department of politics of the University of Nottingham, portrayed Lien's electoral challenges as a last-ditch effort to retain power.
Noting that Lien is 68 years old and has lost two presidential elections, Rawnsley said, "What has he got to lose by complaining about election irregularities? It's not the greatest thing he could have done. But what has he got to lose? This is his last shot at the presidency."
Regarding the way Lien mounted his challenges, he said, "I don't think he's really done anything to give himself any credibility as being an important political leader in Taiwan."
Fell said that the failure of the referendum questions to pass would hurt President Chen Shui-bian (
"But the KMT's treatment of the referendum has probably been quite damaging to the trust in Taiwan's democratic institutions," he said.
Even though the referendum response fell short of the 50 percent threshold, "don't underestimate the 7 million voters who did vote for the referendum," Hsiao said.
While the 90 percent "yes" vote among those that picked up the ballots was not legally binding, the results "send a strong political message. No government, no president can take it lightly," he said.
Hsiao and other speakers seemed to consider a Taiwanese national identity coming to the forefront of Taiwan's politics to be the main impact and lesson of the election. As a result, Hsiao said, "no leader in the future can afford to take a very soft position vis-a-vis the PRC."
While speakers noted that Chen this time received a majority of votes, they said it might not be enough of a mandate to allow him to carry out some campaign promises.
"A 0.2 percent victory is difficult to translate into a clear mandate," Rawnsley said. "His narrow victory, together with the blue camp response, certainly weakens Chen's ability to embark on the kind of radical reform agenda" he outlined in the campaign.
The results, challenges and violence following the vote means that "Taiwan is now entering a very difficult phase of its democratic consolidation. We are seeing signs that Taiwan's election culture is perhaps not as stable as we are often led to believe," he said.
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