Taipei Times: Can Taiwan's referendum be a way toward independence? If Taiwan has a referendum on independence, will it cause big trouble in the region?
Bruno Kaufmann: The international community, especially countries like France, the US and Germany, is so concerned about stability in the region due to conflicts in North Korea that they see Taiwan as a disturbance.
PHOTO: GEORGE TSORNG, TAIPEI TIMESN
Taiwan is a disturbance to their strategy to develop long-term business and political connections to China.
They don't understand anything about what's really going on here. Or they don't want to understand it because they are under such big pressure from Beijing.
The situation now is that Taiwan is not free to [have a referendum on independence].
Its external security is based on international politics and on bilateral agreements with other countries, such as the US. It would be more sensible to develop the referendum to deal with other issues, not just with the independence problem.
TT: US officials questioned Taiwan's referendum plan and said they did not see a need for the vote. Does the Taiwanese government need to ask its people whether it should strengthen anti-missile defense and whether it should establish a "peace and stability framework" with China?
Kaufmann: If you already have high consensus [on an issue], you don't need a referendum. If there are issues that really have to be discussed, you need more clearness -- then it is good to have a referendum.
I can see the US government's position. They see the vote as an unnecessary thing because they think, "What can the referendum change?"
But the important thing is that these issues [be discussed] by the people. The question is: Is the referendum really leading to a big discussion and a big debate?
There is a big risk that these issues are not really being discussed and that the referendum is seen more as the political parties and political leaders' play.
[This sort of referendum] does not really give the people a big say.
Still, I would say it is better to use the tool now than not to use it, because if you never use it, you cannot learn to make it better next time.
Low turnout for the referendum could be seen by China [as evidence] that the Taiwanese people are not so concerned about these issues.
That may be the biggest risk.
TT: The opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party called for voters to boycott the referendum, accusing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of manipulating the vote to boost President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) chances in the election. Could the opposition parties cause a setback in Taiwan's democratization? Do you find anything improper in the DPP's calling the referendum?
Kaufmann: First, opposition lawmakers [partly] decided on the Referendum Law.
This Referendum Law is far from a good law.
It does not really give citizens a lot to decide [or choice about what] to introduce. It is more a law that gives the government and the parliament [ways] to play with the referendum instrument.
The government is now using the Referendum Law in its way. There are two main [motivations] for using it. One is that the DPP is always in favor of having referendums [on the China issue]. They want to use the opportunity. This is understandable, because you never know what will happen after the election. Maybe the referendum will not be possible anymore.
The other thing is the vote is linked to the election. They use it in a way that it has an additional [implication] for the election. This is not very good.
We, from our institute, normally do not recommend putting a referendum and an election together, because then you mix up issues and personal questions.
That's a problem. But I would say it is not right for the opposition parties to say the referendum is illegal, because they have made the law and the president is using the law.
The opposition did not put the referendum to judicial testing when it was proposed. It is not credible to say now the referendum is illegitimate and illegal.
The problem of the government's using the referendum is the timing. There's far too little time to really conduct the referendum in a good way.
The electoral committee is still discussing things about how to conduct the referendum, and it is only three days ahead of the vote. That's not a very good conduct of the referendum. That will not help [provide] a good experience of the referendum.
On the other [hand], I would say [tomorrow's] referendum is not really free. When you see how the layout of local election and referendum places will be, people will have to vote for the president first and then the referendum.
Everybody will see who is not going. People may feel controlled by some local politicians who know them. It is not real secrecy in the vote. It should be a basic thing that people should be free to vote as they want without somebody seeing what they are doing.
TT: What is the significance of Taiwan's referendum in the course of Asian countries' democratization?
Kaufmann: By understanding that referendums and initiatives play a role in democracy, Taiwan has a very a mature democracy. But I think the referendum will be seen as a very difficult first experience. It is quite normal that [the first experience] is like that.
Looking back at the referendum, such things have to be assessed: Was it rushed? Was it really done in a sufficient way?
In political reality, the parties are much less interested in having the citizens in power.
There is a lot of rhetoric [about doing so]. But in practical everyday politics, it is much harder to really give the people the right. I really hope the parties here and the future president will be ready to do the referendum better and develop the tool, rather than saying they are just testing it.
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