The decision of social groups who support the pan-blue camp to participate in televised debates on the government's referendum plan will greatly benefit the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and improve President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) re-election prospects, according to DPP leaders and political analysts.
"There will be 10 debates in the space of a month and all the people who are entering the fray are big names. It can't help but have a big impact on people," Presidential Office Secretary-General Chiou I-jen (
"It's as though the DPP has been unwittingly given an enormous boost from the broadcast media," Chiou said.
He said that the public referendum has been an important part of the DPP's policy for years, and that this was a battleground that had been set up by the party.
"If the enemy wants to enter this battleground, the DPP simply cannot be defeated," Chiou said.
He said that ever since Chen decided to prioritize public referenda, the DPP has been worried that their opponents would "march toward a new battleground." The "big names" joining the pro-referendum movement makes it all the more obvious that the pan-blue camp, which has been weakened by its internal contradictions, dare not face the referendum issue, Chiou said.
"But when the electorate sees the passionate debates, people are bound to wonder why the opposition presidential and vice-presidential candidates are not coming forward to make their position clear. When all's said and done, what is Lien Chan's (連戰) and James Soong's (宋楚瑜) position?" Chiou said.
Under the Public Referendum Law (
"If these [social] groups perform better in the debates than their government opponents, it will awaken a sense of crisis on the part of the government's supporters, giving rise to indignation and prompting them to assist the campaign and to urge their friends and family to do the same," said Cheng Cheng-yu (鄭政煜), executive director of the Southern Taiwan Society.
"If our prospects improve even slightly, and the purpose and significance of the referendum issue gets a bit more publicity, Chen Shui-bian will be re-elected," Cheng said.
Koai Kuang-wu (蒯光武), assistant professor at the Institute of Communication Management at National Sun Yat-sen University, said that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)-People First Party (PFP) alliance's hesitation on the issue would allow the DPP to strengthen its offensive against the opposition, improving its ability to highlight the differences between the two sides.
"If Lien and Soong continue to equivocate while other KMT-PFP alliance heavyweights react inappropriately to the referendum issues, the public will condemn the pan-blue camp for its lack of courage and the referendum issue may ultimately prove to be the critical strike that sinks the Lien-Soong ship," Koai said.
"Right now the entire government is saying: `The Ministry of National Defense's position is correct,' so those in society who are keenly awaiting the referendum feel cheated," said political columnist Hu Wen-huei (胡文輝).
"The DPP has its reputation to uphold, but a referendum is not a simple `appeal.' Rather, it is something which is of clear significance as far as policy is concerned. It forms the basis on which the Executive Yuan must base its policies, so the premier should tactfully put the Ministry of National Defense right on this and stress that Taiwan would modify its planned expenditure on weapons in line with the result of the referendum, as the people will expect it to do," Hu said.
Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming (湯曜明) has told the Legislative Yuan's National Defense Committee that the results of the referendum would not affect the ministry's plan to purchase such weapons systems.
Chen and Cabinet Spokesman Lin Chia-lung (
"The referendum question deals with future defense reinforcement projects. The NT$500 billion arms procurement refers to an advanced anti-missile deployment plan that the defense ministry has been working on since 1997," Chen said in a radio interview on Thursday.
"It's very clear that the Presidential Office and the Executive Yuan fear that if they condemn the Ministry of National Defense too strongly and ask it to retract its words, they could prompt a clash between the military and government officials. An anti-missile stance that is too militant could damage Chen's electoral pros-pects," Hu said. "But the Executive Yuan must understand that if it doesn't speak clearly from the outset, it will damage the people's faith in the government and dampen enthusiasm for a referendum."
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