Analysts fear anti-missile system will fail

The anti-missile system that the military plans to build to defend against China's ballistic missiles might fall short of expectations, military analysts say.

The system, which won't be available for several years, will be a hybrid of home-made and imported products.

One-third of the system will be composed of the US-made Patriot PAC-III system, while the rest is still under development at the Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST), Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming (湯曜明) said at a recent press conference.

The Patriot PAC-III, used by the US during its attack on Iraq last year, is regarded as a must-buy for the Ministry of National Defense (MND).

The MND plans to buy six batteries of the Patriot PAC-III at an estimated cost of NT$110 billion. The ministry will request a special budget for the purchase since the annual defense budget will be insufficient.

The MND claims to have made a careful study of the capabilities of the Patriot PAC-III but has yet to convince the public that the system is worth the money.

Chang Li-teh (張立德), a senior editor with Defense Technology Monthly magazine, says there is no evidence that the Patriot PAC-III can intercept China's ballistic missiles.

"It is true that the system scored a few hits in last year's strike on Iraq. But it has also attacked friendly targets," Chang said.

"Public records show that the Patriot PAC-III intercepted several Scud missiles fired by Iraqi forces. But these missiles were modified Scuds, whose range was cut from 600km to just 150km," he said.

"A short-range missile is easier to intercept than a missile with a longer range. That the Patriot PAC-III can shoot down a short-range missile does not mean it is already a reliable anti-missile system," he said. "If put to use in the Taiwan Strait, what the Patriot PAC-III will encounter is Chinese ballistic missiles with a much longer range. No one can guarantee what the result will be."

Chang also warned that the Patriot PAC-III also attacked several friendly targets, and it was unclear why.

The combat performance of the Patriot PAC-III failed to persuade Chang that it was a mature and reliable system that Taiwan could count on.

Besides its "limited" capabilities, the Patriot PAC-III is expensive.

Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) recently told the press that it is estimated that two missiles would be needed to intercept one missile from China. By next year, when the number of missiles China has deployed across the Taiwan Strait will have reached 650, Taiwan will need at least 1,300 Patriot missiles to defend itself.

Lu said that not only would buying the anti-missiles be expensive, but so would their upkeep.

Shu Hsiao-huang (舒孝煌), a senior editor at Defence International magazine, agreed with Lu on that point but said that even a marked increase in the number of missile interceptors would not be a solution.

"Any anti-missile system would be useless for Taiwan given the limited reaction time it could give us. A better solution is to acquire the ability to strike back at China," Shu said.

The efficiency of the anti-missile system being developed by the CSIST is also in doubt.

The CSIST has spent years and an undisclosed amount of money on the development of the anti-missile system, but with no concrete results.

This could be because it has encountered a technical problem it cannot solve, and seeking help from abroad would compromise national secrets.

Another problem is the military's lack of a long-range early warning radar to serve as the eye for the anti-missile system.

Retired air force general Kao Chung-yuan (高仲源), now a lawmaker with the Chinese Nationalist Party, said even the long-range radar would not be enough.

"What we really need is a satellite which can spot the launch of a ballistic missile from China. It could give us the greatest reaction time," Kao said.