Print

Mail

wiki links

Falling birthrate raises worries

At the age of 43, Justine Ko (柯響峰), a self-employed interior designer, feels perfectly content with being a bachelor. He is not gay, but simply doesn't want to get married. He does not want to have to adjust himself to, and maybe sometimes endure, someone who comes from a very different background and has a different way of life.

"If a marriage becomes something that a person has to endure, there's a high possibility that it'll lead to a crisis," he said. "I know I may sound finicky and selfish and sure I feel obliged to get married and have a family because I'm the oldest child in my family, but I just don't think it's fair to apply one uniform formula to each and every individual."

Getting married may not sound like a horrifying thing for Zhu Li-xi (諸理析), but having kids does.

Zhu, a 49-year-old college professor, has been married for about 21 years and has no intention whatsoever to add another member to his family. His theory is simple: self-fulfillment outweighs everything else, including raising children.

"Parenting is one hell of a big commitment and a great responsibility which takes at least 20 years of your life," he said. "I don't find it appealing to toil or even waste 20 years of my life to give up my dreams just for the fun of raising a child."

Rebecca Wang (王玉如), a 34-year-old married career woman, said that she does want more than one child if she and her husband are going to have any children at all.

"With bank savings of a little more than NT$500,000, I don't think we can afford to have more than one baby," she said, adding that they are planning to have their first child four years into their marriage.

Late marriages, smaller family sizes and a lower reproduction rate are common social phenomena in Taiwan nowadays, and the deeply trouble demographers.

According to Chang Ming-cheng (張明正), a demographer at the Taichung Healthcare and Management University, Taiwan's birth rate dropped to a record low, estimated at 12.74 per 1,000 of the population, last year and the preferred number of children has decreased steadily since the 1960s.

"If the downward trend continues, the nation's population will reach the stage of zero population growth soon, speedily turning into negative growth," he says.

Low population growth means fewer younger people and an increase in the proportion of old people in the population. It means a smaller labor force as a proportion of the population and a higher dependency ratio -- in short fewer productive people and more people needing care, and a host of social problems.

According the Ministry of the Interior, last year saw a record low for new births with only 227,000 babies born, or an 8.3 percent decrease on the previous year.

Senior citizens take up about 9 percent of the nation's total population, more than a 1 percent increase compared to the 1998 figure.

A study conducted by Chang also indicates that the nation's total fertility rate (TFR, children born per woman) declined from 1955's 6.55 to 1.7 in 1997, 1.6 in 2000, 1.45 in 2001, 1.34 in 2002 and then 1.3 last year. When the island-wide "two children" family planning program was introduced in 1964, the TFR was 5.1.

The net reproduction rate (NRR, number of female births per woman) fell to 1 in 1983 and to 0.7 in 2001. The NRR was 2.27 in 1964.

Since 1984 the nation's NRR has been below the replacement rate.

Chang's study also shows that the mean preferred number of children also decreased from 4 in 1965 to about 2.7 in 1980 and then to 2.4 in 1998.

"While only 7 percent of married couples said they wanted to have only one child or no child at all in a 1997 survey, the percentage jumped to 17 percent in 2002," Chang said. He also pointed out that the tendency toward one or no children was greater among younger couples, which means that there is no reason to expect the trend to be reversed.

Chang attributed the declining reproduction rate to various reasons, including the economic factors and the erosion of traditional values.

In Wang's case, family economy plays a pivotal role in her marriage. In her mind, a steady job and a reasonable amount of savings are the two prerequisites for having a baby.

In Ko's and Zhu's cases, the withering of the tradition of getting married and having offspring has prompted them to opt for following their own dreams rather than going down the traditional path like others. A rising age at marriage also has an important effect in reducing birth rates and the total fertility rate, Chang said.

Chang attributed the rising age at marriage to urbanization and the rapid rise in educational levels, especially for women.

"Rising education levels have been important in producing the postponement effect. Various studies have shown that the higher the educational levels, the older people get married," Chang said.

Rising educational levels result in an exodus of young women living in rural areas to big cities, which inject more manpower to the labor market but creates an imbalance in the marriage market.

"Taiwan has a very unique social phenomenon in that the number of eligible men outnumbers their female counterparts, but it's women who find themselves having more trouble finding a husband," Chang said. "A woman with a high educational level tends to prefer a man with an even higher educational background, which usually comes with more financial security."

Statistics show that men take up more than 52 percent of the total population, while women account for 48 percent. The male-to-female ratio last year was 110 to 100, the highest ever.

Apparently, Taiwan is not the only country running into the problem of low reproduction rates and people waiting longer before they get married.

To encourage more births, the Singaporean government, for example, has initiated various measures including organizing trips and activities for eligible men and women and creating a web site where they can meet their potential mates online.

In Taiwan, no such incentives are proposed although the interior ministry is mulling offering monetary incentives to encourage childbirth. Chang, however, casts doubt on the effectiveness of the proposed policy.

"It might have a greater effect for those with lower educational levels or in rural areas, but I doubt that it'll change the core values of those with higher educational levels who value liberalism and self-fulfillment more than raising children," he said.
This story has been viewed 2616 times.