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Pan-blue camp forces DPP to alter its election strategy

"The blue camp opened the avenue of a `defensive' referendum in the case of national sovereignty being threatened. Although this is unsatisfactory, Taiwan does at least now have a referendum law."

Hong Chi-chang, senior DPP lawmaker

The strategic about-face performed by the pan-blue camp in diving into the constitutional reform and referendum debate, has effectively blurred the issues at stake in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government's position and disrupted the momentum of President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) electoral campaign.

Though most close aides to the president are considering whether to keep Chen involved in the referendum issue, some leading members of the DPP have advised the president to alter his strategy by emphasizing economic and public works issues.

They have also suggested that debate be redirected to the vice-Presidential candidacy, as a tactical withdrawal from the current battle with pan-blue forces.

"Over the last six months, President Chen has been on top of the media coverage and the electoral campaign, using political debate to put pressure on the blue camp and maintaining a campaign focus on independence and constitutional reform. The blue camp has counter-attacked, using their majority in the legislature to sidetrack the government. They have also succeeded in manipulating contradictions within the green camp. In this way they have balanced out any advantage the green camp previously had," said senior DPP lawmaker Hong Chi-chang (洪奇昌).

According to Hong, the blue camp's strategy has been effective in nullifying the discursive advantage held by the green camp, and has counteracted President Chen's aspirations for political reform. Troubles await the DPP whether they decide to continue the battle over constitutional reform or whether they seek to open up a new front.

"Although the referendum law passed by the blue camp has many faults and has many provisions that are not constitutional, the majority of people don't really understand the details of the law," Hong said.

"Moreover, the blue camp opened the avenue of a `defensive' referendum in the case of national sovereignty being threatened. Although this is unsatisfactory, Taiwan does at least now have a referendum law," he said.

While the DPP could not defeat the blue camp in a head-to-head confrontation in the legislature, any attempt to mobilize public sentiment as part of this conflict could lead to a vote of no confidence in the government. As the stakes rise, the conflict is bound to have both social and economic repercussions that, Hong believes, will not be welcomed by the public.

Hong said that as party loyalists were unlikely to change their vote even if the Cabinet overturned the law, the government should drop the referendum debate and focus on economic issues, which are of greater concern to undecided voters.

"Two years ago, the DPP's economic track record was a target for the blue camp, as its performance was far from strong. But in the last year, things have changed radically, what with the Taichung Science-based Industrial Park, the cleaning up of Kaohsiung's water supply, the completion of the second expressway and the investment of NT$500 billion in the five-year new national infrastructure plan. These are real accomplishments that the DPP should lay before the public," Hong said.

According to one of President Chen's aides, the original campaign plan had been to make use of the economic upswing and the five year national infrastructure plan to play the "public works" card, showcasing the DPP's successful economic policy over the last three years.

"With the Blue camp using its numerical advantage in the legislature, and their manipulation of the subtle contradictions that exist between the DPP and the TSU, it will be very difficult to reassert control over the debate of the referendum law in the media," the aide said.

"Chiu Yi-ren (邱義仁), secretary general of the Presidential Office, and other senior advisors have discussed with the president whether to reconsider its current campaign strategy."
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