While in Taiwan the outcome of next year's presidential election seems unpredictable, pundits from outside Taiwan are optimistic that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win.
They agreed that DPP's proposals to pass a referendum law and create a new constitution were a boon to the party's election campaign.
At an international conference hosted by the pro-independence think tank Taiwan Advocates on the weekend, associate professor Tsukasa Shibuya at the Institute of World Studies of Takushoku University said President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) could rely on a wide base of support.
"Chen is very popular in the southern counties of Taiwan and among young voters, as well as elderly who suffered during the authoritarian era," Shibuya said.
"Chen has also always had good results from his previous election campaigns. He won five out of seven times he ran in elections, and on the two occasions he lost they were close races," Shibuya
While running in an election is not a matter of luck, "the tide of history is on the side of the pan-green camp," Shibuya said.
The DPP's plans to legislate referendums and create a new constitution also give the DPP an edge, as they give the people of Taiwan "something concrete," Shibuya said. "They will help Chen win the votes of people who have no political preference, the undecided voters."
Professor Hidenori Ijiri at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies said that without these controversial proposals, the vision the DPP provides to the people of Taiwan would be "too vague."
Columnist Cao Chang-ching (曹長青), formally a New-York-based Chinese dissident, said that Taiwan needed a constitution that reflects the reality of the country.
"We already know that China's reality is authoritarian. What we need to see is Taiwan's reality. The map of Taiwan is not like the shape of a its leaf," as Taiwanese students used to learn from maps in their primary-school text books that included the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Mongolia.
"Every ordinary US citizen I ask when I am in New York has told me that they think Taiwan is a country. The reality has yet to be realized by all of Taiwan's people," Cao said.
Cao urged the people of Taiwan to make use of their right to choose.
"The 1.3 billion people in China have no such right. But Taiwan should recognize that without seeing reality there would be no democratization for Taiwan," Cao said. "Former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) dares to say the reality of Taiwan -- that is why he is still supported by so many Taiwanese people. The DPP's proposal of a new constitution will be favorable to its election campaign as it speaks the voice of Taiwan."
Asked if the DPP's plans had had any adverse effects on the cross-strait situation, Ijiri said China was unlikely to make any move.
"Their tactic is to wait and see. After the election, if they want to take any action, they still have time," Ijiri said.
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