Playing hardball gets Chen back in game

President Chen Shui-bian's supporters bring flags to a ceremony where a support group was launched in Taipei to back Chen's re-election bid yesterday. PHOTO: GEORGE TSRONG, TAIPEI TIMES

Political say President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has successfully led his presidential election campaign and caught up with his pan-blue rivals in the polls. And he has done so, they say, by highlighting the opposition parties' arrogance and conservatism by working on the issues of constitutional reform and national identity.

But, the analysts point out, the key to winning the election next March lies in how well the economy performs in the final few months leading up to the vote.

"Normally, it is the opposition party's strategy to criticize the government, to offer a vision for the future, an idealistic appeal and to urge reform," said Hu Wen-hui (胡文輝), a senior political columnist.

"All governing parties in the world, on the other hand, appeal to preserve the status quo. They stress stability above everything and remind the public to be grateful for the stability and identify with the government's long-term efforts," Hu said.

But, said Hu, Taiwan's political situation is not normal.

"Taiwan, however, is probably the only democratic country in the world where the reverse holds true. Right now the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is inciting people to support reform. Meanwhile the opposing pan-blue camp of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People First Party (PFP) are proposing to maintain the status quo -- or even a step further, to return to the past with a strong nostalgia for the old dictatorship."

Hu out that the presidential election campaign had already started last April when KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) formed an alliance to present a joint ticket with Lien as the presidential candidate and Soong as his running mate.

In the past six months, Chen Shui-bian has been playing catch up. He's proposed referendums, legislative reform, a new Constitution, singing the tune of reform and making the DPP look like the opposition party, Hu said.

The pan-blue camp, on the other hand, has been acting like a traditional governing party, unable to propose a new agenda.

Instead, they have been urging the public to reminisce, to indulge in remembering two dictators and they have not been offering any concrete vision for the future.

"All campaign appeals have been linked to the past and had nothing to do with the future," Hu said.

Agenda-setting the major battlefield of an election campaign, said Chen Sun-shan (陳淞山), a senior political analyst and commissioner of the Civil Service Protection and Training Commission.

Before the transfer of power in 2000, the DPP -- without a strong party mechanism and lacking support from both political and military circles -- was good at running the campaign with various word games, flyers and brochures. In addition, Chen Shui-bian's campaign team was considered the very best in dishing out an exciting and refreshing agenda.

"A-bian is still leading the election agenda. In domestic affairs, he appeals for reform, in contrast to the KMT-PFP's status quo," said Chen Sun-shan, referring to the president by his nickname.

"And in cross-strait relations, A-bian is using national security as a reason to appeal for the status quo, in contrast to the KMT-PFP's calls for further opening up to China," he said.

"A-bian's way obviously represents the mainstream of Taiwanese people and it also satisfies the international interests, which are headed by the US. He can take up a good spot in the open debate and gain a strategic advantage," he said.

Chen Sun-shan, who once served as the chief of Chen Shui-bian's staff when A-bian was still a legislator, said that the KMT-PFP alliance seems to think they have an advantage with the Taiwanese electorate structure -- and with the DPP's poor record during its first three years in power. As a result, the pan-blue camp thought they could do nothing and still win the election, Chen Sun-shan said.

"These two parties did nothing to prove that they had reformed themselves in the past three years. And right now they cannot deliver any concrete policies to draw a future for Taiwan," Chen Sun-shan said.

"Even their fundamental ideologies are not close to mainstream public opinion, and this is where A-bian's team can work to lead the public and media on issues," Chen Sun-shan said.

Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華), president of the Taipei Society pointed out that the chaos the DPP caused during its first two and half years in power enabled the Lien-Soong ticket to lead Chen Shui-bian by 20 percent in the polls when the ticket was first created. But during the past six months, the pan-blue camp has been completely unable to take the lead on issues concerning the public.

"They also presented themselves in a conservative light and the support shown in the polls has fallen greatly," Ku said.

"Lien Chan even used the word `boring' to respond to Chen Shui-bian's constitutional-reform appeal. It only shows how arrogant the KMT is, and how inaccessible Lien is. This also shows that the pan-blue camp ignores the impact these appeals have on the grassroots public," Ku said.

Ku that whether Chen Shui-bian can realize his reform goals and promises was another matter.

What is that Chen Shui-bian's election agenda is very clear, he is good at presenting his issues in the media, and he is aggressively interacting with the public. As a result, the polls have slowly come to show that he is enjoying the same level of support as the Lien-Soong ticket, Ku said.

Recent have also shown that the economy is recovering. So the crucial point for the presidential election next March lies with the governing party's performance in the final few months," Ku said.

"If the economy shows growth early next year, it would change everything and turns the campaign to A-bian's advantage," Ku said. "This would be A-bian's best move, and Lien-Soong's least favorite one."