This week Taiwan will fail in its 11th bid to rejoin the UN. This will come as a surprise to no one; indeed the only surprising thing is that the government will almost certainly try again next year, regardless of which party wins the next election.
This year's bid is much the same as in previous years.
Fifteen of Taiwan's diplomatic allies have signed a petition asking for the agenda of the UN General Assembly to include an item called "Question of the representation of the Republic of China (Taiwan) in the United Nations."
The petition itself says that Taiwan is the only country not in the UN and asks the General Assembly to "redress this mistaken omission." It lists seven reasons why Taiwan should be a member and ends on an upbeat note: "Taiwan needs the United Nations, and the United Nations needs Taiwan!"
The wording is a little different from the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)-orchestrated bids of the 1990s, but the gist of the argument is the same. In fact, membership of international organizations for the country is one of the few issues both the pan-green and pan-blue camps agree on. Despite this unusual bipartisan support, the government has made little significant progress, and government officials are less than hopeful about this year's bid.
"We see it as a long-term effort, so we don't expect anything to change overnight," a government source familiar with the bid said when asked about the chances of success. "To be realistic, we're not expecting any drastic change."
Even Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Michael Kao (高英茂), when launching the bid, braced the public not to be too disappointed if it fails.
"The bids advocate Taiwan's existence as a reality, while there is still a long way to go before Taiwan is recognized and accepted as a member of the world body," Kao said last month.
This pessimism is well founded. UN regulations combined with China's influence over the body present insurmountable hurdles. The campaign to rejoin the UN is also constrained by decisions taken long ago by previous governments.
The Republic of China was a founding member of the UN in 1945, when it controlled considerably more of China than it does now. In 1971 the PRC persuaded the General Assembly to pass Resolution 2758, which restored "the lawful rights of the People's Republic of China -- as the only legitimate representatives of China" and expelled "the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations."
The resolution was clear on who would represent China, but, as UN membership advocates are quick to point out, did not address who would represent the people of Taiwan.
This has left Taiwan with two options: apply as a new member or persuade the General Assembly to amend Resolution 2758.
New members must be recommended by the Security Council, on which China has a veto. So the government, since 1993, has been trying to bypass the Security Council by appealing directly to the General Assembly.
In many ways this is following the PRC's tactics more than 30 years ago.
The General Assembly is relatively weak compared to the Security Council, but does have authority in dealing with the organization's administrative matters. When it passed Resolution 2758, it was not regarded as expelling a member or allowing a new member to join. It was merely replacing illegitimate representatives of a country, China, with legitimate ones.
While Taiwan doesn't face a veto in the General Assembly, it still faces overwhelming opposition from allies of China, including influential countries keen to placate China in the hope of gaining access to its markets.
Last year 62 countries spoke against the bid, and sources at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said they expected a similar level of opposition this year. Twenty-two spoke in support, all of them diplomatic allies of Taiwan.
So why is the government so intent on continuing with this seemingly Sisyphean task? One reason is public opinion.
"If you did a public opinion poll in Taiwan, I believe more than 95 percent of people would support this kind of action," said Tung Chen-yuan (童振源), an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University. "Because Taiwanese people always feel isolated in the international community."
The nation's UN bid could also be considered a bargaining chip in negotiations with China, even though the two sides haven't talked to each other in years.
"We hope we can advocate Taiwan's status in the United Nations system so that China will face our situation and negotiate with Taiwan," Tung said. "This kind of UN bid also reminds other countries that Taiwan is out of the system and other countries must face the situation."
Perhaps most importantly, the bid contributes to national security by internationalizing the political standoff across the Strait and China's threats to invade.
"We are creating an issue in the international community," the government source said. "The UN community is now fully aware of the issue. The PRC is having to shoulder more and more responsibility in justifying its position."
While the ruling and opposition camps largely agree on the need to continue with UN bids every year, and even the wording of the petitions, they differ over how the bid might progress in the future.
"The major problem is with mainland China's attitude. So we hope to negotiate with China as soon as we can," said Justin Chou (
Chou said that negotiation with China had allowed Taiwan to get into the WTO and the Olympics.
"We can follow the same way. We negotiate with mainland China and get support from the other countries. We can just go for it," he said.
The foreign ministry did not want to immediately comment because it did not want to complicate matters ahead of the bid, which will be discussed in the UN General Committee, which draws up the General Assembly's agenda, on Wednesday.
But Legislator Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), who is also the head of the DPP's Department of International Affairs, suggested persistence would win through in the end.
"Taiwan's bid for UN membership is a project that takes time and patience," she said. "With growing support from the international community at large and the continuous support of our diplomatic allies and overseas Taiwanese, we make incremental progress each year."
She agreed with Chou on the primary problem, China's opposition to the bid, but not necessarily on the solution.
"The `one China' principle is the main obstacle in all of Taiwan's international activities," she said.
"Creative strategies are needed to challenge and deconstruct this principle in foreign-policy-making circles."
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