Taiwan must now choose democracy, professor insists

Professor Mineo Nakajima spoke of the importance of Taiwan's democratization yesterday at an international conference on Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" organized by Taiwan Advocates (群策會) at the Grand Hotel yesterday.

A former principal of Tokyo University of Foreign Language specializing in International Relations, and author of many books on China-Taiwan-Hong Kong relations, Nakajima said that Taiwan's next presidential election was important, if not crucial, for the Asia region.

"Taiwan's democratization, which began during former president Lee Teng-hui's(李登輝) administration has to be continued, even more so in the face of China's anti-democratic political pressure. If Taiwan's democratization fades, Japan and the countries of the Asian region will be severely disadvantaged," Nakajima said.

Nakajima that it was absolutely necessary that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) be re-elected in next year's election, as Chen is the only person who will carry out Taiwan's democratization agenda and protect Lee's accomplishments.

"After the presidential election, the next step for Taiwan will be a referendum on changing the nation's name." Nakajima said.

"The change ... is important as this will take away any justification China might have in using force against Taiwan. And the US cannot ignore China's use of force against Taiwan should Taiwan takes the word `China' out of its formal name," he said.

In his presentation yesterday, Nakajima spoke of the collapse of Hong Kong since its 1997 handover, and of the gradual diminishment of Hong Kong's freedom and democracy should serve as a lesson for Taiwan.

While Nakajima holds a pessimistic view of the future of Hong Kong, he said the people of Taiwan have a choice about their future.

"In choosing between obtaining recognition of Taiwan and maintaining the current situation, thereby continuing the ambiguity over identity, Taiwanese will need national cooperation, a lot of conviction and commitment to change the current status quo," he said.

Should Taiwan's opt for the latter course, 21st century Taiwanese will not be able to obtain adequate international recognition, he said.

Nakajima the utmost importance of Taiwanese people recognizing their own identity.

"Without such self-awareness and recognition, Taiwan will be divided and eventually taken over by China," he said.

Nakajima that it is unlikely that China will accept the government's direct cross strait transportation proposals because: "It is unlikely that the two sides will reach a mutual agreement with each side maintaining their political stance,"

He also said that he thought direct transportation links were anyway undesirable in that they would lead to greater penetration of Taiwanese society by Chinese influences.

As far as economic development is concerned, Nakajima said that he thought the current economic development projections by China were mostly wishful thinking on the part of Beijing.

"Once the make-believe crumbles, investments in China will all suffer" he said, calling for early preparation by all Taiwanese and Japanese investors for such an eventuality.

Nakajima that Taiwan had to make a decision regarding its national identity.

"It is very unlikely that China will use force against Taiwan for fear of condemnation by the international community before the 2008 Beijing Olympic. Thus, should Taiwan make a choice, it had best be done before 2008," he said.