Why did Taiwan's bid to gain observer status in this May's meeting of the World Health Assembly fizzle? Because neither Washington nor Taipei wanted a public rout and both saw one coming. And because China was fully prepared, it seems, to call their bluff.
While the George W. Bush administration repeatedly said that it would speak out on the floor of the WHA meeting on May 19, the day the session opened, it was silent when it came to supporting Taiwan in the WHA agenda committee on May 17 and May 18.
The reason for this, according to a Taiwan supporter in Washington who received information from informed congressional staffers, was that "China had threatened the US that it would ask for a vote on Taiwan's participation in the Monday [May 19] assembly if the US supported Taiwan in the agenda committee. And, according to the US, `We don't want Taiwan to humiliate itself.'"
Taiwan supporters and lobbyists in Washington followed the unfolding saga of the WHA meeting closely and have come up with an extensive record of what happened, based on contacts with congressional staffers, administration officials and others.
During a State Department briefing on May 16, the eve of the WHA meeting, one congressional staffer asked an official why the US didn't let a vote take place the following week "so that we can tally the countries that now support Taiwan."
The answer, according to a Taiwan supporter, appeared to be that it would be highly unlikely that more countries would support Taiwan's participation than in the past. Since the US did not announce it would explicitly support Taiwan in Geneva until a week or so before the assembly, there was no time for the health ministers attending the meeting to contact their foreign affairs ministries on whether to support Taiwan in view of Washington's late decision.
This seemed to conflict with the optimistic message the State Department was putting out at the time.
On May 13, three days before the congressional briefing, a senior State Department official told reporters Washington was optimistic about gaining more support than in the past.
In a rare on-the-record session at the State Department, Randall Shriver, the deputy secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific, told reporters he expected the number of countries supporting Taiwan to be "substantially higher than the last time this was put to a vote," in 1997, the year Taiwan began its campaign for WTO participation.
"We're working with like-minded countries and those we hope can be persuaded to show support for Taiwan. We'd like to see progress this year," he told reporters, noting that the SARS epidemic might make some countries come around.
He described the US effort as "a little bit more aggressive," saying "we think there's a possibility of greater support out there."
Shriver's and other US officials' comments were seen by much of Taiwan's media at the time as a sign of vigorous US support.
Shriver was, in fact, more circumspect, saying only that the US would be "overt ... and vocal" in pressing for Taiwan's case.
If Washington did want to push for a vote on Taiwan, it was thwarted by another, more important consideration -- Taipei itself was worried about being embarrassed and losing face, and asked the US not to push for a vote that might expose its weak position.
The State Department revealed this in a report to Congress on its WHA activities for Taiwan, which was made public late this week.
On May 18, the head of the US delegation to the WHA, Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson, said the US backed Taiwan's bid to gain observer status because it would help fight SARS, which was spreading unchecked in Taiwan and other countries at the time.
On May 19, as promised, he spoke out for Taiwan on the floor of the general assembly, citing US support for "Taiwan's inclusion in efforts against SARS and beyond."
But he did not specifically call for Taiwan's observer status in the WHA or a vote on such a status.
A big disappointment for Taiwan supporters was the failure of Japan to live up to a verbal commitment to speak up forcefully for Taiwan at the meeting. For months, Taiwan backers had been lobbying Tokyo to speak up for Taiwan at the assembly.
Japanese officials had promised to speak up at the plenary session if the US also did so.
When it came to making the floor speech, Japanese Vice Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Yoshio Kimura said only that "a certain country" had not obtained substantial assistance from the WHO in its fight against SARS, "thus posing a great impact on its neighboring countries, including Japan," a Taiwan supporter said.
"Kimura's remarks pointed to Taiwan's bid for observer status in the WHA. Japan reneged on an earlier promise to openly support Taiwan ... because the Chinese had threatened the Japanese that if they supported Taiwan's bid, they would cancel a meeting shortly thereafter between [Chinese president] Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and [Japanese Prime Minister] Junichiro Koizumi," the supporter said.
"As Thompson left the meeting room, Thompson said Taiwan was `going to have to work on other countries' than Japan if it wanted to succeed," the supporter said.
In a report to Congress on the US efforts in Geneva, the State Department claimed Japan helped because it "voiced [its] support for Taiwan's participation prior to the assembly."
Nevertheless, Taiwan supporters in Washington remain hopeful for next year. Their strategy includes pushing for resolutions, letters and meetings as well as pro-Taiwan provisions in upcoming legislation. They will also lobby all the members of the World Health Assembly.
"We will thus form a coalition of the willing, and get that coalition to speak out in support of Taiwan next May in Geneva. Only then will Taiwan get in," one leading pro-Taiwan lobbyist said.
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