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Referendum could be a double-edged sword for Chen

President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) pledge to hold a national referendum could be seen as a move to advance the kind of direct democracy that had been obstructed by former KMT administrations, political analysts say. But, they add, the result of a referendum on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant issue may not benefit Chen in the upcoming presidential campaign.

"The DPP says that, according to its public opinion surveys, nearly 60 percent of the people in this country support a referendum on the nuclear power plant issue as a means of solving the controversy that has lasted two decades," said Hu Wen-huei (胡文輝), a political columnist and senior journalist. "The question is whether the DPP's stance of abandoning the plant's construction can get enough support from the people."

"If over half of the people vote to continue the construction of the plant, it means that the DPP has followed the wrong policy. That would give the opposition parties more opportunities to attack the DPP government's incompetence," Hu said.

If the DPP wins the referendum, then it has to face a series of follow-up controversies that includes proposing a new energy project to replace the nuclear plant, finding a way to ensure the working rights of the power plant's employees and figuring out how to reorganize the government's annual budget, Hu said.

Hu stressed that the DPP's strategy to conduct a referendum on the issue seems to have successfully moved to the forefront of the political agenda and even forced the opposition parties to stand on Chen's side and support the idea of a plebiscite -- for the time being. But, Hu warned, Chen will have to face possible negative aftereffects if the government goes ahead and holds a plebiscite.

Ku Chung-hua (顧忠華), president of the Taipei Society and political professor at the National Chengchi University, said that the public is concerned about whether the controversial referendum issue will again harm the economic recovery.

"The nuclear power plant issue has bothered the country's development and caused controversy almost every year in the past two decades," said Ku. "So the referendum, which now all political parties express support for, can be regarded as a proper way to solve the problem once and for all."

Ku said that since the DPP has vowed to accept the responsibilities and risks of holding a referendum, the public can see it as a positive sign that Taiwan is finally enjoying direct democracy.

A close aide to the president has admitted that Chen made his referendum pledge due to pressure from former DPP chairman Lin Ying-hsiung (林義雄), who has spent a lifetime advocating the abolition of nuclear power. So, the aide said, and no matter how the referendum turns out, the point is that the president must demonstrate his resolution to facilitate Lin's wish.

"To realize his promise to Lin to solve the issue of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant, President Chen has for a long time seriously considered holding a national referendum. The World Health Organization issue, in which China again demonstrated its rudeness by obstructing Taiwan's participation in the international community, gave the president an opportunity," the aide said.
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