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Report reveals cracks in `one China' plan

The `one China' principle which has helped sustain fragile cross-strait ties is showing signs of erosion following Taiwan's democratization over the past ten years, argues a renowned international think tank in its latest report on cross-strait flashpoint.

"Taiwan has moved right away -- far more than most realize -- from accepting that it and the mainland are part of one country," International Crisis Group (ICG) President Gareth Evans was quoted as saying in an ICG press release on Friday.

"Neither side wants war, but positions on the sovereignty issue are now so far apart, and so intensely held, that the risk of war must continue to be taken seriously," Evans added.

Evans, former Australian foreign minister as well as a nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize, made the comment following the concurrent release of three reports on cross-strait ties by the ICG in Taipei, Beijing, Washington and Brussels.

The first report argues that Taiwan, as part of its new democratic identity, has come to assert itself not just as a separate political entity, but also as a sovereign country.

The emergence of the `new Taiwanese' identity following large advances in Taiwan's democratization, the country's economic performance and its integration with the international trade system became a source of pride to its people, the report says.

It comes as no surprise that citizens of Taiwan increasingly feel a sense that these achievements had come regardless of the constraints imposed by Beijing and the international community in respect to the `one China' principle, the report says.

"As a result, many Taiwanese resented China for imposing this international straitjacket," the report says, while adding that Beijing's military threats in 1995 strengthened the new Taiwan identity and weakened support for the `one China' idea.

The report also argues that "the position that Taiwan is already an independent sovereign country is not one of a radical political fringe, but a mainstream view" in the present society of Taiwan.

As a result, the longstanding formula, whereby both sides supported the `one China' policy but had differing interpretations of what this meant, is on the verge of fragmentation, the report argues.

"The argument that the `one China' principle is in retreat is a depiction of the cross-strait reality," said Wu Chih-chung (綄腄豆), political analyst at Soochow University.

Lee Kuo-hsiung (李國雄), professor of political science at National Chengchi University, said the ICG report grasped the increasing sense of identity that Taiwanese have come to express over the past one decade. Although President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) is firm on the view that Beijing has to acknowledge Taiwan's position as an independent sovereign state, his administration has acted with some restraint in dealing with China, the ICG report argues.

"He has committed his government to prevent a final show-down with China by avoiding highly provocative political acts such as ... [trying to] change the Constitution to create a `Republic of Taiwan,'" the report says.

Although Beijing has put the Taiwan issue on the backburner in its day-to-day preoccupations, it remains "deeply concerned about the underlying trends in Taiwan domestic politics and, more recently, in US-Taiwan military relations."

While the report says it's unlikely to witness any early resumption of cross-strait high-level political talks, all parties involved should continue to "subdue any tendency to provoke."

"The period leading up to Taiwan's next presidential election, now announced for March 20 next year, will be an important test of whether its pro-independence leaders will be willing to act this way," the report adds.

The second ICG report assesses the chances of military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait, while the third spells out what involved parties can and should do to avoid it.

A non-profit multinational organization, Brussels-based ICG has over 90 staff on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy for conflict prevention. Deputy Secretary General to the President Joseph Wu (吳釗燮), is currently an ICG board member with high-profile international credentials. He has served on the staff of such former US ambassadors as Morton Abramowitz and Kenneth Adelman.
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