KMT set to block referendum plan

"The pan-blue camp is concerned about holding a WHO referendum because of a knee-jerk reaction that such a move would agitate or provoke Beijing."

Holmes Liao, political observer

Despite arguments from pan-blue members against President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) proposal to hold a referendum on the country's entry into the WHO, some political observers said that there are other reasons why the KMT and PFP are against a referendum.

"The pan-blue camp is concerned about holding a WHO referendum because of a knee-jerk reaction that such a move would agitate or provoke Beijing," said Holmes Liao (廖宏祥), a political observer and research fellow at the Taiwan Research Institute's Division of Strategic and International Studies.

"The opposition pan-blue camp is afraid of a reaction from Beijing, which wants no referendum of that nature to take place in Taiwan," Liao said.

In a bid to demonstrate to the international community Taiwan's determination to join the WHO, Chen last week proposed to hold a plebiscite on Taiwan's entry into the international health body by next May when the WHA holds its next annual meeting.

Taiwan's bid to gain observer status at the World Health Assembly (WHA) -- the highest decision-making body of the WHO -- was rejected for a seventh time late last month thanks to opposition from China.

Chen's plebiscite idea has since met with severe criticism from the pan-blue camp. PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) said that there's no need to hold a referendum as Taiwan's desire to join the WHO is already a public consensus.

In addition to pan-blue legislators' criticism that Chen's proposal is an attempt to distract public attention away from the government's SARS prevention and control performance, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), at his party's weekly Central Standing Committee meeting last Wednesday, said Chen's plebiscite idea "would confuse the international community by creating an impression that suggests Taiwan's public is divided on the matter concerning its entry to the WHO."

KMT and PFP lawmakers believe a referendum could be a back door to independence, Liao added.

"One reason that the pan-blue camp is really scared about holding a WHO referendum is that the move might pave the way in the future for a plebiscite that could be staged to determine issues such as the nation's identity and future," Liao said, alluding to the difference in independence and unification ideology between the two camps.

Agreeing with Liao's comments, political observer and sociology professor at National Taiwan University Chiu Hei-yuan (瞿海源) said that the pan-blue camp is concerned that the implementation of a referendum would displease Beijing.

In this regard, Liao said that the concerns of the pan-blue camp could be alleviated via a referendum law that stipulates the exclusion of public voting on controversial issues such as independence or unification, national security and military affairs.

The legislature's Home and Nations Committee is still deadlocked over the draft referendum law.

Ger Yeong-kuang (葛永光), professor of political science at National Taiwan University, disagreed with Liao's comments concerning Beijing and said that "the pan-blue camp's opposition to a referendum has nothing to do with intimidation from Beijing.

"While we don't know how exactly China would react if Taiwan does hold a referendum, one thing is certain," Ger said. "The DPP, being the ruling party, should work to avoid all ways that would upset or intensify cross-strait relations and thus provoke war and place lives in danger.

"Rather than saying that the pan-blue camp is afraid of Beijing's reaction and thus is opposed to the referendum, I think it is more correct to say that the pan-blue camp is concerned about the lives and security of Taiwan's 23 million people."

With the presidential election less than nine months away, Ger said that Chen's referendum idea is actually a campaign maneuver meant to smear focus of the election as well as distract the public's attention from the performance of the DPP.