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Division of labor marks 2004 race

Since being selected by national party congresses on March 30th as the party's presidential candidate for next March's presidential election, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) has been diligently visiting grassroot supporters in southern Taiwan in a bid to court their attention and support.

One day after gaining approval from his national party congress as the party's presidential candidate, Lien showed up in Kaohsiung County for a whirlwind visit to several local townships. During the two-day visit, Lien was seen chatting with local residents, taking part in local festivities and visiting with township representatives.

On Tomb-sweeping Day last Saturday, Lien appeared in Tainan City, his hometown, to pay respects to his ancestors as well as to take the opportunity to visit with local academics during his two-day stay.

Yesterday, Lien again was seen in Kaohsiung County visiting with top local officials and agricultural association representatives.

Today, Lien will travel to Tainan County to eat with local officials, visit local temples and to take part in religious ceremonies, along with thousands of followers of Matsu (媽祖), goddess of the sea in Taoist belief, at the Tai-an Taoist Hal (泰安宮) on her annual blessing tour.

During his stay in Tainan County, Lien will also visit with local officials in Kuantien township -- hometown of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) -- to vie for their support in his presidential bid.

Taking a closer look at the result of the 2000 presidential election, it is understandable why Lien has chosen southern Taiwan to kick off his presidential campaign.

Chen won the 2000 presidential election with 39 percent of the vote. PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), who then ran as an independent, took 36 percent while Lien, the KMT's candidate, came in a distant third with 23 percent of the vote.

This time around, both Lien and Soong have pledged to join forces and field a joint ticket for the election.

"If we look at the last presidential election result, southern Taiwan is by no mean a stronghold of votes for the pan-blue camp," said Emile Sheng (盛治仁), a political science professor at Soochow University.

Echoing Sheng's remarks, professor of political science at National Taiwan University Ger Yeong-kuang (葛永光) said, "It is a fact that when you compare it to the pan-green camp, the pan-blue camp generally receives less support from southern Taiwan voters."

"So I think it is a very good idea that Lien is visiting the grassroots in southern Taiwan to raise his visibility and round up support for the pan-blue camp," Ger said, adding that Lien's efforts alone are not enough and the pan-blues will need to use their influence in the media and representatives in the south to gain more of a foothold there.

Although Soong was the candidate of choice in the last presidential election in northern, central and eastern regions and gained overwhelming victories in Taiwan's offshore islands, Chen was still able to land the election thanks to the great support he received in the south, where he won an absolute majority of ballots cast.

Chen outpolled Soong by large margins in southern Taiwan's Kaohsiung, Pingtung, Chiayi and Yunlin. Lien, on the other hand, did not take any cities or counties but was the runner-up in six counties, including Tainan, Chiayi, Pingtung, Taitung, Kinmen and Lienchiang.

Pointing out Soong's regional popularity in the last election, Ger said that it appears that the pan-blue camp is adopting a "division of labor" campaign strategy in the run up to the 2004 race.

"Lien and Soong are each trying to play their influences in areas where they can do best," Ger said.

"In other words, while Soong will likely focus on courting voters in northern, central and eastern Taiwan given his popularity in those area," Ger said, "Lien can play his influence in southern Taiwan to court local support."

It remains to be seen, however, whether or not Lien's effort can cross the Chuoshui River -- generally regarded as the dividing line between northern and southern Taiwan -- and break down Chen's southern stronghold next March.
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