Cross-strait ties expected to dominate 2004 race

A senior aide to the president said that Chen's new year's speech has already set the tone for the administration -- maintaining stability and peace -- and that there will be no surprises or aggressive campaign measures.

But he said the government would continue to advance economic and trade exchanges across the strait.

The aide said any breakthrough in the cross-strait relationship would not be decided by Taiwan alone, adding that the requirement of the "one China" principle will keep the governments on each side of the Strait from initiating any substantial exchanges.

Beijing doesn't know how to handle the pairing of Lien and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), he said.

"They certainly want the Lien-Soong ticket to win the election, but they also know very well that the pro-unification candidates will not make any big breakthroughs even if they are elected, so they are cautious to comment on Lien's proposed visit," the aide said.

When Chen took office in 2000, he pledged to uphold the "four nos" -- no to a declaration of independence, referendums, constitutional change or changes to national symbols. He has also said that the National Unification Guidelines and National Unification Council would not be abolished.

Beijing has said that it would "be listening to what he says and observing his actions."

It expressed the same opinion about Lien's proposed visit.

Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly magazine, said the ruling and opposition parties were expected to attack each other over ideology, adding that voters on each side of the independence-unification spectrum have already made up their minds about whom to support.

Chin said campaign promises will make little difference for neutral voters, adding they will likely cast their ballots based on incidental events such as China's responses and international affairs.

"These non-biased voters are difficult to please because they don't care about unpractical political policies, nor do they believe politicians' promises," Chin said. "It is stimulus from China that will prompt them to cast their vote.

"China must have learned a lesson from the past two presidential elections. They had better not try to provoke or to influence Taiwan's election, as the result will always run counter to their desire if they do so," Chin said.

In 1991, China launched missiles into the Strait with the intention of sinking Lee Teng-hui's campaign. Lee ended up beating his pro-unification rival by an overwhelming margin.

In the 2000 election, Chen Shui-bian won the presidency three days after then Chinese premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) called on the Taiwanese people not to vote for independence. Zhu's move prompted neutral voters to move against unification.

"For those who want to win the presidency, what the Taiwanese people want is far more important than what the Beijing government does," Ku said. "It is impractical to expect any big breakthrough."