President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) labelling of KMT Chairman Lien Chan's (連戰) planned trip to China if elected president as a "trip of surrender" indicates that cross-strait relations will be the key issue in next year's presidential election, according to political observers.
Nevertheless, the observers also said that both Chen and Lien would try to occupy the middle ground on the independence-unification spectrum.
"The historic structure of Taiwan has polarized politicians' China policies display based on independence and unification," said Ku Chung-hwa (
"However, since the change of regime, the third way, which goes beyond the ideologies of independence and unification and appeals to stability and security, is the only way for emerging politicians," he said.
He said a careful examination of Chen's public remarks over the past three years and Lien's declarations since being nominated as the KMT's candidate for the next presidential election shows that both are promising "stability and peace."
"The only difference between the ruling and opposition parties is the `pace of openness,'" Ku said.
"Basically, it is a separation of campaign strategies -- the ruling party takes a defensive position, while the opposition has more room to propose bold measures."
As an example, he pointed to the old KMT regime's adoption of the "no haste, be patient" policy under former president Lee Teng-hui (
He said that Chen, since becoming president, has changed his promise of pushing direct links and is now following Lee's old route, while Lien is showing his desire to speed up the development of cross-strait ties.
"Even if Lien wins next year's election, I don't believe the new government will promptly make a breakthrough in its mainland policy. The contradictory ideologies of the Taiwanese people will prevent politicians from taking any provocative measures," Ku said.
"If one wants to be the leader of Taiwan, he or she needs to put the interest of the Taiwanese people first. Therefore, continuity and stability will be the guidelines for mainland policy," Ku said.
"The Taiwanese people and international society do not expect politicians to bring them any surprises or breakthroughs," he said.
Deputy secretary-general of the Presidential Office Joseph Wu (
The KMT insists that the 1992 meeting in Singapore between representatives of the two sides of the Strait had led to an agreement on "one China, with each side having its own interpretation."
Wu said that since Chen took office, he has called for meetings between the two sides, but Beijing has always said that the "one China" policy is a premise for such meetings and that Taiwan must subordinate itself to China.
"The opposition's so-called `1992 consensus' is totally different from Beijing's definition, which indicates that the `one China' principle simply means `Taiwan is a part of China.' How could Taiwan's president agree with the `1992 consensus?'" Wu said.
"If the president agrees with the `one China' principle, he would not be the president of Taiwan. If he disagrees with it, the Beijing government would refuse a visit by `Taiwan's president.'"
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