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Cross-strait ties expected to dominate 2004 race

President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) labelling of KMT Chairman Lien Chan's (連戰) planned trip to China if elected president as a "trip of surrender" indicates that cross-strait relations will be the key issue in next year's presidential election, according to political observers.

Nevertheless, the observers also said that both Chen and Lien would try to occupy the middle ground on the independence-unification spectrum.

"The historic structure of Taiwan has polarized politicians' China policies display based on independence and unification," said Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華), a professor of sociology at National Chengchi University and president of the Taipei Society (澄社).

"However, since the change of regime, the third way, which goes beyond the ideologies of independence and unification and appeals to stability and security, is the only way for emerging politicians," he said.

He said a careful examination of Chen's public remarks over the past three years and Lien's declarations since being nominated as the KMT's candidate for the next presidential election shows that both are promising "stability and peace."

"The only difference between the ruling and opposition parties is the `pace of openness,'" Ku said.

"Basically, it is a separation of campaign strategies -- the ruling party takes a defensive position, while the opposition has more room to propose bold measures."

As an example, he pointed to the old KMT regime's adoption of the "no haste, be patient" policy under former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝).

He said that Chen, since becoming president, has changed his promise of pushing direct links and is now following Lee's old route, while Lien is showing his desire to speed up the development of cross-strait ties.

"Even if Lien wins next year's election, I don't believe the new government will promptly make a breakthrough in its mainland policy. The contradictory ideologies of the Taiwanese people will prevent politicians from taking any provocative measures," Ku said.

"If one wants to be the leader of Taiwan, he or she needs to put the interest of the Taiwanese people first. Therefore, continuity and stability will be the guidelines for mainland policy," Ku said.

"The Taiwanese people and international society do not expect politicians to bring them any surprises or breakthroughs," he said.

Deputy secretary-general of the Presidential Office Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) said that the president believes it would be theoretically and practically impossible for Lien to visit China based on the so-called "1992 consensus."

The KMT insists that the 1992 meeting in Singapore between representatives of the two sides of the Strait had led to an agreement on "one China, with each side having its own interpretation."

Wu said that since Chen took office, he has called for meetings between the two sides, but Beijing has always said that the "one China" policy is a premise for such meetings and that Taiwan must subordinate itself to China.

"The opposition's so-called `1992 consensus' is totally different from Beijing's definition, which indicates that the `one China' principle simply means `Taiwan is a part of China.' How could Taiwan's president agree with the `1992 consensus?'" Wu said.

"If the president agrees with the `one China' principle, he would not be the president of Taiwan. If he disagrees with it, the Beijing government would refuse a visit by `Taiwan's president.'"

A senior aide to the president said that Chen's new year's speech has already set the tone for the administration -- maintaining stability and peace -- and that there will be no surprises or aggressive campaign measures.

But he said the government would continue to advance economic and trade exchanges across the strait.

The aide said any breakthrough in the cross-strait relationship would not be decided by Taiwan alone, adding that the requirement of the "one China" principle will keep the governments on each side of the Strait from initiating any substantial exchanges.

Beijing doesn't know how to handle the pairing of Lien and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), he said.

"They certainly want the Lien-Soong ticket to win the election, but they also know very well that the pro-unification candidates will not make any big breakthroughs even if they are elected, so they are cautious to comment on Lien's proposed visit," the aide said.

When Chen took office in 2000, he pledged to uphold the "four nos" -- no to a declaration of independence, referendums, constitutional change or changes to national symbols. He has also said that the National Unification Guidelines and National Unification Council would not be abolished.

Beijing has said that it would "be listening to what he says and observing his actions."

It expressed the same opinion about Lien's proposed visit.

Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly magazine, said the ruling and opposition parties were expected to attack each other over ideology, adding that voters on each side of the independence-unification spectrum have already made up their minds about whom to support.

Chin said campaign promises will make little difference for neutral voters, adding they will likely cast their ballots based on incidental events such as China's responses and international affairs.

"These non-biased voters are difficult to please because they don't care about unpractical political policies, nor do they believe politicians' promises," Chin said. "It is stimulus from China that will prompt them to cast their vote.

"China must have learned a lesson from the past two presidential elections. They had better not try to provoke or to influence Taiwan's election, as the result will always run counter to their desire if they do so," Chin said.

In 1991, China launched missiles into the Strait with the intention of sinking Lee Teng-hui's campaign. Lee ended up beating his pro-unification rival by an overwhelming margin.

In the 2000 election, Chen Shui-bian won the presidency three days after then Chinese premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) called on the Taiwanese people not to vote for independence. Zhu's move prompted neutral voters to move against unification.

"For those who want to win the presidency, what the Taiwanese people want is far more important than what the Beijing government does," Ku said. "It is impractical to expect any big breakthrough."
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