Economy key to election: analysts

The announcement of a joint KMT-PFP team to run against President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) in next year's presidential election has set the tone for the poll, but political critics said the key to winning is whether people will vote for political reform or against a weakened economy.

KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) held a joint press conference yesterday to announce the formation of a pan-blue campaign ticket.

"After Chen's three years in power, people are disappointed with Taiwan's economic development and the lack of progress in relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait," said Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華), a sociology professor at National Chengchi University and chairman of the Taipei Society.

"Nevertheless, the government has made progress in some parts of its reform drive, such as judicial reforms," Ku said.

"On the other hand, the KMT has restructured itself and tried hard to eliminate its `black gold' image -- even though its intentions are not convincing," he said.

"The resolution of the disagreement between the leaders of the pan-blue camp and the consolidation of their campaign is satisfactory to their supporters," Ku added.

He said that there was no distinction between left-wing and right-wing in domestic politics, but there are unique competitions between revolution and stability and between justice and prosperity.

"Over the past three years, Chen and the government have gradually found a way to stability. Chen declared a four-point reform that indicates the ruling party is still focusing on the prospects for reform and fairness," Ku said.

"As for the blue camp, it is clear that it will use its huge administrative resources and promise of economic development to appeal to voters," Ku said.

He said there will be a clear difference in the campaign appeals between the DPP and the opposition alliance.

Therefore, he said, the key will be whether non-aligned voters back "continual reform" or "the demands of the economy."

Analysts said Chen's campaign team is one of the best in the country, but campaign strategies won't be what counts.

They say the key to a DPP victory is whether the government can keep the economy stable and maintain the gradual recovery.

"The country's economic development is tied to the global situation, which is out of the government's control," said Ko Chen-en (柯承恩), the dean of National Taiwan University's College of Management.

"If Chen wants to win re-election, the government needs to take action to boost economic and trade figures and to convince people that their lives are improving," Ko said.

"The blue camp believes that as long as Lien keeps control over the rich and powerful KMT and can reach an agreement with the very popular Soong, the joint ticket will beat Chen with more than 52 percent of the vote, as PFP and KMT supporters account for more than half of the voters," he said.

Ko said that Chen needed to be bolder in dealing with several problems facing the country, such as the impending war in Iraq, the economy and cross-strait relations, otherwise good campaign strategies would be useless.

Undecided voters will be looking at the Lien-Soong ticket for evidence of specific policies and reform proposals, he said.

He said Lien and Soong would have to persuade voters that they would carry out their policies and that their alliance was not merely a compromise to win the election.