Wed, Jan 01, 2003 - Page 2 News List

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On the brink

The world was taken on a rollercoaster ride in 2002, as the US upped the ante in the war on terror and economic markets see-sawed -- leaving everyone to wonder, `Where do we go from here?'

But the outlook remains uncertain and fears are growing about deflation, a demon once thought confined to the economic history books.

In the EU, a two-year slowdown continued as the economic block banked on a global rebound that never materialized. The EU's largest national economy, Germany, struggled to get a handle on unemployment, now at around 10 percent. In a report released Dec. 12, the European Central Bank forecast economic growth in the euro-zone for last year of just 0.6 percent to 1 percent.

Expectations for Japan were low after a decade of economic malaise. With the Nikkei 225 Stock Average finishing the year down 17 percent, those expectations proved to be well-founded as Asia's traditional growth engine continued to sputter.

China was the year's bright spot. As the year drew to a close, the nation's Bureau of Statistics reported GDP grew by an estimated 8 percent for last year.

Yet China's rise appears to have done little for its neighbors as investment that once flowed to other Asian nations dried up in favor of China's lower costs.

Complicating hopes for a economic recovery is the prospect of war in Iraq.

And so the year ended the same way it began, with the economy unsure of itself and analysts expecting an upturn just around the corner -- a long hangover indeed. -- Stephen Graham

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