Diplomat weighs in on S Korea

Taipei Times: What do you think about this presidential election? How do you evaluate Roh's victory?

Lee Chung-ru (李宗儒): The Korean people's passionate and active personalities, as well as their rapidly changing opinions, have made a strong impression. The most important and direct cause of Roh's success is the deaths of two female students who were hit by a US armored vehicle. This accident triggered backlash from South Koreans who have long been dissatisfied with the US suppression of North Korea. Anti-US sentiment was detrimental to Roh's contender, Lee Hoi-chang, and instead, became an advantageous point for Roh. A series of anti-US demonstrations stirred up a "Roh fever."

Also, the South Koreans' confidence peaked after the country held the Olympic Games in Seoul and then the World Cup. Their economic confidence has also bounced back from rock bottom after the financial crisis to the country's current achievements, which have been hailed by the international community. In each ballot cast, they gave vent to their feelings over the US military accident.

In addition to his personal charisma and his efforts to resolve regional grievances, Roh has a good grasp of the electorate's discontent about old-man politics such as that practiced by Kim Dae-jung, King Young-sam and Kim Jong-il, as well as corruption. This is why he managed to catch younger voters' attention.

Roh's victory should be seen as a watershed separating two political generations in South Korea. It also marks a new era of cultural transformation and changes in political thought.

TT: Roh has positioned himself as Kim Dae-jung's protege and stressed that he will adopt Kim's path, including the "Sunshine Policy" toward North Korea. But his stance might conflict with US interests. How do you assess the future situation in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia?

Lee: The US implements its Northeast Asia strategy in a global context. Ongoing conflicts between the two Koreas provide the US with the only strategic reason for remaining on the peninsula. China also has its strategic goals -- hoping the Korean Peninsula will maintain peace while attempting to get rid of US influence. Meanwhile, Japan focuses more on the threats posed by North Korea, and therefore its strategy has little bearing on South Korea.

After taking office, Roh will continue Kim's North Korea policy and the nation will continue in its efforts in seeking reconciliation with its northern neighbor. There is no big disparity between the unification policies advanced by South Korea's ruling and opposition parties. Only their approaches are different. We should be optimistic about it.

Now the problem lies with North Korea, which has been marginalized but still sticks to communism. Under the circumstances, how can it unify with South Korea? China is not willing to sacrifice itself for the sake of North Korea. So the country finds itself in an unfavorable situation.

TT: In order to push for his "Sunshine Policy," Kim Dae-jung's stance has been to flatter Beijing. But since Roh lacks Kim's international experience, do you think Roh will adopt a more balanced policy toward Taipei?

Lee: The Taiwan-Korean ties under Kim Dae-jung's presidency have fallen to the bottom that cannot be worse. Korea has its expectations from China, in terms of exportation, investment, tourism, overseas studies, and some other economic and diplomatic needs, in which China is South Korea's most important partner. Therefore, we can't expect South Korea to change dramatically in this aspect.