Fri, Dec 13, 2002 - Page 2 News List

Scientists look to improve ability to forecast typhoons

RESEARCH PROJECT Forecasters hope robotic aircraft will give them information about the weather phenomena before the storms strike

By Chiu Yu-Tzu  /  STAFF REPORTER

A study using robotic aircraft to observe typhoons will help improve the accuracy of typhoon analysis, which is essential to disaster-prevention, scientists sponsored by the National Scien-ce Council said yesterday.

The method would enable scientists to determine the threat of wind and rain from a typhoon about a day before it makes landfall.

"This would be a big improvement in both quantitative precipitation forecasts and disaster-prevention," Ben Jou (周仲島), an atmospheric scientist at National Taiwan University and convener of the research project, said at a press conference yesterday.

Researchers used the robotic aircraft to gather data on violent weather systems from southeast Taiwan in May and June last year.

The experiment is part of an NSC-sponsored three-year project on dangerous weather.

According to Jou, the experiment allowed scientists to observe phenomena pertaining to the irregular distribution of mist -- something stationary radar systems don't permit.

"We estimate that the observation would make it possible to identify which type of typhoon is coming at least 24 hours prior to its arrival," Jou said.

Jou said typhoons are usually of two types -- rain and wind.

According to an analysis by Chen Taichi (陳台琦), an atmospheric physicist at National Central University, Typhoon Nari, which hit Taiwan last year, could be classified as a rain typhoon, while Typhoon Herb in 1996 could be described as a wind typhoon.

According to Jou, stationary Doppler radar stations in coastal areas obtain information on typhoons only once the storms have almost made landfall.

Using the robotic aircraft will allow meteorological observations extending 460km from the island, Jou said.

Jou said that Taiwan would soon join an international weather research program, THORPEX-GARP II.

The atmospheric research project, Jou said, is designed to observe weather in the western Pacific. The research would rely on collaboration among countries in the region such as Japan and China. The experiment will be carried out in 2005.

"Taiwanese atmospheric scientists will definitely join the project because we have a lot of valuable experience to share," Jou said, adding that he was invited to Tokyo last month for a discussion on possible cooperation.

Jou said that weather data in southern China was important to Taiwanese forecasters because monsoons move eastward.

A cross-strait academic exchange on atmospheric science will be held next week at National Taiwan University.

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