Ma expected to go for Chen's job

The results of Saturday's election show Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has proven himself ready for the next presidential election and is the top competitor for President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) job, political observers said yesterday.

"The result affects the political domains of the opposition KMT, PFP and New Party," said political observer Hu Wen-hui (胡文輝), adding that the KMT and New Party will have closer ties, while the PFP will lose influence.

Hu said Ma, who defeated his DPP opponent Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) by about 380,000 votes, is a hot candidate to represent the pan-blue camp in the next presidential election.

He added that KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), who is widely believed to have benefitted from the the election result, will have more space to maneuver, but PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) faces a crisis of being marginalized.

Asked during a press conference after being declared winner of the mayoral race if he will run for the presidency in 2004, Ma replied, "So far, I have no idea."

The mayor's vague reply leaves him room to make a bid for the presidency.

"Ma is in a good position to wait and see," Hu said.

He added that if Lien and Soong remain deadlocked over who will represent the blue camp in the next election, impatient pan-blue supporters will turn to Ma.

He said it is also likely that Lien would nominate Ma as his deputy or keep his own title as KMT chairman and allow Ma to run for the presidency.

Hu said that Soong is in a more difficult situation, as he now faces both Lien and Ma as competitors hoping to represent the blue camp in the next election.

Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), a political observer and editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly magazine, said the mayoral election has changed the leadership of the pan-blue camp, as the monopoly on decision-making by a few political leaders is being overwhelmed by the influence of public opinion.

As the leader of the largest opposition party, Lien is supposed to be the No. 1 leader of the pan-blue camp, but his low popularity -- described by Chin as a commodity in a market whose expiry date has passed -- and his losing more than 2 million votes to Soong in the last presidential election has given Soong more influence.

"But the mayoral election has changed the situation with grassroots opinion controlling the outcome," Chin said.

Chin took the PFP's switching of its support to KMT Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英) as an example.

He said the PFP was forced to give up its support for independent Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Chang Po-ya (張博雅) when polls showed that it was Huang who was more likely to win.

Chin said public opinion forced the PFP to alter its stance in Taipei as well.

PFP Legislator Liu Wen-hsiung (劉文雄) criticized Ma as being too proud to show his appreciation for the PFP's support just two days before the election. But the day after Liu made the comments, calls flooded into PFP headquarters to protest against the lawmaker's remarks and Soong was forced to kneel down to show support for Ma and clarify that the party has no intention of dividing the pan-blue camp.

Chin said the New Party won five seats on Taipei City Council and will be able to influence blue-camp negotiations.

He said if the New Party reunites with the KMT, Soong will be marginalized and his influence in the camp will be further reduced.