Foreign observers believe race has lessons for 2004

The results of Saturday's mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung offer lessons for parties preparing for the 2004 presidential race, foreign observers said.

Analysts said the results should serve as a wake-up call for the pan-blue camp.

"The election result ... is once again an example for the KMT and PFP. If they are divided, they will not win the election; but if they can better coordinate with each other, the chances for winning the election will be higher," said Li Pang-kwong (李彭廣), associate professor from the department of politics and sociology at Hong Kong's Lingnan University.

Although KMT challenger Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英) lost his fight for Kaohsiung to Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) by more than 24,000 votes, belated but strong support from the PFP was critical to Huang's improved performance as the race progressed, Li said.

"Coordination within the blue camp should be strengthened," Li said.

Stanley Rosen, a political scientist from the University of Southern California, also stressed the need for cooperation.

"The only way for the pan-blue camp to stand a strong chance to win the 2004 race is for different factions within the PFP and KMT to manage to work something out," Rosen said.

The foreign observers, however, held mixed views on whether the landslide victory of Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) would entice him to run in the 2004 presidential race.

"I think that's a real victory for him. ... This makes Ma look quite good," Rosen said.

Ma got 873,102 votes, around 64 percent of the total, while his DPP challenger Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) received 488,811 votes, or 35 percent.

Rosen said that the result could see Ma emerge as a strong contender in the 2004 presidential election.

Li said that although it's logical for Ma's supporters to push the popular mayor to run in the presidential race -- Ma is seen by many as the only way to compete with President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) -- other obstacles may stand in the way.

"The time is not right. Ma will be challenged by the DPP for not living up to his promise to serve as Taipei mayor for the whole term. And this will not be good for his image," Li said.

Recalling their first visit to observe elections in Taiwan in the early 1990s, when the nation was beginning to democratize, academics said the country's democracy has matured.

Rosen said the Legislative Yuan election in 1991 was much more polarized and rough compared with what he observed during the latest election in Taiwan, a view echoed by Li.

"I think the people here in Taiwan are quite reasonable, sensible and mature after 10 years of development," Li said.