An Australian military think tank warned yesterday that China and the US were on a collision course over Taiwan that threatened Asia-Pacific security.
The government-funded Australian Strategic Policy Institute raised concerns that the China-US relationship "might drift into animosity or even war in coming years."
"Washington wants to retain, and perhaps enhance, its place as the key arbiter of security and stability in the Western Pacific, while Beijing hopes one day to supplant the US in that role," the institute said in a review of Australia's key defense issues.
"Both sides plan on the basis that China's economic, military and political power will continue to grow strongly. If that is correct, a clash of aspirations seems close to inevitable," it said.
Taiwan is the key bone of contention between the countries because of China's long-term insistence on unification, it continued.
The institute said there was no doubt that China would use military force if sufficiently provoked by pro-independence forces in Taiwan.
"If China tried to apply significant military pressure to Taiwan, for example blockading Taiwan's air and sea space, Washington would be very likely to mount a substantial armed response," it said.
"China's air and naval capabilities, though far weaker than America's, are strong enough to offer significant resistance to any US action. There would be a very real risk of conflict and escalation."
China this week said its policy on Taiwan had not changed with the appointment of Vice President Hu Jintao (
RSS