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Taiwan 2004 shaping up to be rerun of Taipei 1998

"What worries Soong is that once his competitor in the pan-blue camp changes from Lien to Ma, his chances become slimmer."

Chin Heng-wei, editor in chief of `Contemporary' monthly

Who is President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) most formidable opponent in the 2004 presidential election?

Political observers think that with PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) being gradually marginalized, KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) lacking the charisma needed to attract voters and President Chen targeting Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), the 2004 presidential election might be a replay of the contest between Chen and Ma in the 1998 Taipei mayoral election.

"The current Taipei mayoral election campaign shows that Ma's strategy is to be respectful to Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), criticize Chen and ignore [DPP mayoral candidate] Lee Ying-yuan (李應元)," senior political observer Hu Wen-hui (胡文輝) said.

"And for the sake of retaking the capital for the DPP, President Chen joined the campaign earlier than scheduled and launched fierce attacks on Ma during his stumps for the DPP's Lee. This has made an impression of the duel between Ma and A-bian on the electorate," Hu said.

"Once the Bian-Ma duel becomes the mainstream discourse in the media, people will pin their hopes for national leadership on these two political stars and thereby push for a generational change in Taiwan's political parties. Fifty-something politicians will dominate the political stage, while those over 60 will have to step down or play a role behind the scenes," Hu said.

Hu pointed out that the political trends are quite clear -- within the KMT, the party is focusing more on Ma.

As Lien Chan has proved to be an unattractive product in the electoral market and the party's reforms have gone nowhere over the past two years, the KMT's future is solely dependent on Ma. Hence, the party elite and members under 50 have been cozying up to him.

"Party elders know all too well that they won't be able to win the next presidential election with chairman Lien Chan alone. Cooperation with James Soong would mean the annexation of the party by the PFP," Hu said. "And party leaders such as Wu Po-hsiung (吳伯雄), Vincent Siew (蕭萬長) and Chiang Ping-kun (江丙坤) all bear grudges against Soong over previous internal conflicts."

Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒), editor in chief of Contemporary monthly, said that with issues in the current mayoral campaign focusing on national identity, the question of whether Ma will run for the presidency in the future has become one of will Ma run for the presidency in 2004.

"The fact that pan-blue politicians have jumped on Ma's bandwagon one after the other forced Soong to take the stage early, raising his voice in lashing out at President Chen, lest he should be eliminated in this round of political competition in the media," Chin said.

Chin added that Soong's recent passionate comments were an indication of his anxiety. Soong's public statement of being "willing to drop the bid for the presidency if President Chen honestly faces the `one China' question" is equivalent to a declaration of his presidential bid. Soong even resorted to personal attacks against the president on several occasions in order to boost his media exposure.

"Chen, commanding the strategic position as the president, could change his target at will. He can alternately attack Ma and Soong, has the control over initiatives and can sow discord in the pan-blue camp," Chin said.

"What worries Soong is that once his competitor in the pan-blue camp changes from Lien to Ma, his chances become slimmer," Chin added.

The key lies in Lien's inclination and the resistance of some senior party staff and close aides of Lien.

According to Chin, if Lien recognizes the fact that he stands no chance of winning and works with grassroots party members, Ma could become the pan-blue camp's presidential candidate.

Soong wouldn't be able to do anything to combat this move and would have no choice but to retreat from the frontline.

According to Lin Dong-tai (林東泰), director of the graduate institute of mass communication at National Normal University, the slogan of "subversion has justifications and failure is no sin" (顛覆有理，失敗無罪) has appeared inside the KMT and the "Hope Project" (希望工程) brought by young party staff actually recommends that Ma run in the next presidential race.

This shows the level of discontent with the delay in party reforms within the KMT, Lin said.

"The KMT has a long tradition of respecting seniority and the consequence has been that the party is always in the hands of elders, making reforms difficult.

"Now, with the slogan justifying `subversion,' some KMT members obviously hope to cultivate and nurture an atmosphere of anti-seniority. It merits further observation whether this trend will gain steam after Ma wins his re-election," Lin said.
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