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Analysts split on impact of US midterm elections

Republican victories in the US midterm elections may boost US-Taiwan ties, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman said yesterday, although several academics sounded a more cautionary note.

"We are convinced that substantive relations between Taipei and Washington will continue to grow following the US midterm elections," said Kao An (高安), deputy director of the ministry's information and cultural affairs department.

Shared beliefs in freedom, democracy and human rights, the joint interest in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as well as robust trade and economic exchanges between the US and Taiwan have served as a solid basis for bilateral ties,

Academics and officials attending a panel discussion yesterday, however, were less than optimistic about the implication of the elections on Washington-Taipei-Beijing relations.

Joanne Chang (裘兆琳), research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of European and American Studies, said in light of the perceived pivotal role Beijing has played on issues related to Iraq and North Korea, Washington is expected to take a more conservative stance on triangular ties in order to maintain stability in the Strait.

Wu An-chia (吳安家), head of the Coordination Council for North American Affairs, said it's unlikely that the election results will shake the foundation of the US policy toward Taiwan and China.

Taking into account the perceived interests in cooperating with Beijing in several key areas, such as the war on terrorism, "the US wants to see fluid and stable triangular ties," Wu said.

Beijing, on the other hand, is expected to view economic development as its top priority after the Communist Party's 16th National Congress, meaning it will be looking to secure amiable ties with the US, Wu said.

Wei Yung (魏鏞), a political scientist from National Chiao Tung University, echoed Wu's view.

"China's main objective is to seek internal development while maintaining a peaceful environment externally. So Beijing will not go so far as to confront the US, while it's unlikely the regime will make any concession on the `Taiwan issue,'" Wei said.

When the new congress is sworn in next January, it will be the first time in 50 years that the Republicans have outright control of the White House, Senate and House.

That many supporters of Taiwan were either re-elected or elected for the first time to both the Senate and the House of Representatives may work in Taiwan's favor, Wu said.

Meanwhile, Chang said Taipei should seek more support from Congress for a free-trade agreement as more Republicans are in favor of forging such deals.

In the House, the four co-chairmen of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, which was established last spring, were all re-elected. All of the caucus' 117 members who sought another term were re-elected.
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