China's new leadership is expected to follow the moderate policy of outgoing President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) in dealing with Taiwan by seeking a peaceful reunification, observers said.
A new generation of leaders that is set to emerge at this week's 16th Communist Party Congress is likely to continue to push for the opening of links between the two rivals even if the President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) remains at the helm, they said.
The Mainland Affairs Council has declined to predict future policies of the new Beijing leadership, which is widely expected to be headed by Vice President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤).
"We are closely monitoring the 16th Congress and hope it will come through peacefully. But we do not speculate or comment on the reshuffle of the top leadership in the Communist Party," said council Vice Chairman Chen Ming-tong (陳明通).
"We hope the new leadership will handle cross-strait issues with pragmatism and work towards a constructive cooperation relationship between the two sides," he said.
Chang Jung-kung (張榮恭), the KMT's China policy director, said the transition to the next generation would probably be a smooth one.
"We do not expect China's new leaders to make major changes in the party's Taiwan policy, given our understanding of the history," Chang said.
"We must not unilaterally hope the liberal generation of Beijing leaders would adopt more liberalized ways in dealing with Taiwan. Instead, we should review our own policies to see whether they fit the development in cross-strait ties," Chang said.
Chen is likely to stick to his "one country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait policy, according Chang Ling-cheng (張麟徵), political science professor of National Taiwan University.
Chen angered Beijing in August by announcing this characterization of relations between the two sides and by calling for a referendum on the nation's future.
"Peace can be maintained as long as President Chen does not jump the gun, as the new Chinese leaders would focus their minds on domestic issues such as unemployment, economic growth, basic construction and anti-corruption," Chang said.
But she added that Beijing would also attempt to speed up the opening of direct links "to win friendship" from ordinary Taiwanese citizens.
Chang said that Jiang has generally followed the line of his mentor, the late Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), who tried to resolve the Taiwan issue by offering to implement the "one country, two systems" formula which saw Hong Kong brought back into the Chinese fold in 1997.
But bilateral ties have yet to recover from the 1995 private visit to the US by then president Lee Teng-hui (
A moderate, Jiang was able to resist calls by hardline military leaders to take military action against Taiwan.
But China staged missiles drills off Taiwan in 1996 in a bid to intimidate voters ahead of its first free presidential elections and regular war games have been held in the Taiwan Strait to deter pro-independence sentiment.
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