Ma poised to beat Lee in Taipei

Incumbent Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) would win by a landslide over his challenger, Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) of the ruling DPP, if the election were held tomorrow, a poll released yesterday by Sanlih Entertainment Television showed.

Of those responding to the poll, 56.8 percent said they would vote for Taipei Mayor Ma of the opposition KMT and 17.8 percent said they would vote for Lee should the vote be tomorrow.

Eighteen percent were undecided and 7.4 percent said they would not vote.

On the correlation between the year-end election and the 2004 presidential election, 37.1 percent said that the year-end mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung are the prelude to the battle for president of the country in 2004. Just over 40 percent disagreed and 22.1 had no opinion.

When asked who could best represent the KMT for the 2004 presidential election, 20.4 percent said KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), compared with 31.5 percent for the incumbent Taipei mayor. Nearly five percent opted for Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), 1.9 percent for KMT Vice Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄), and 1.8 percent for others. Almost 40 percent said they had no opinion on the matter.

Lien finished a distant third in the 2000 presidential election. James Soong (宋楚瑜), chairman of the PFP, was the closest rival to President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), who garnered more than 39 percent of the votes.

Regarding President Chen stumping actively for Lee, 45.4 percent said that traditional die-hard supporters in Taipei for the president are drifting away.

But 36.4 percent disagreed and 18.2 percent said they had no opinion.

The poll further showed that 32.8 percent of young voters, traditionally the supporters of the DPP, are drifting toward the opposition camp, compared with 42 percent who disagreed and 25.2 percent who said they had no opinion.

On the question of Ma's lack of popularity in southern Taiwan, traditionally the base of support for the DPP, and this effect on a potential presidential run, 46.3 percent said that it would be important, compared with 33.2 percent who disagreed, with 20.5 percent saying they had no opinion.

The TV station conducted the survey by calling 1,184 eligible voters in Taipei between Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. Effective samples collected totaled 866 with a margin of error of 3.3 percent.