US-China summit poses few problems for Taiwan

Taiwan does not expect any "surprise" talks on Washington-Beijing-Taipei ties during Chinese President Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) visit to the US, foreign ministry officials said.

Messages received through various channels had eased Taipei's worries, said spokeswoman Katharine Chang (張小月).

"We do not anticipate any surprise, any bad news" concerning Taiwan during Jiang's US trip, Chang told reporters, but added authorities "are still watching the development with caution.

"We hope the summit between the US and Chinese leaders will not hurt the interests of our country, but on the contrary, will lead to a winning situation for all three parties," she said.

Observers shared the official view that the Taiwan issue would be touched on in talks between Jiang and US President George W. Bush but no fresh discussions nor concessions would be made.

"We have to admit Taiwan is the vulnerable side in the Washington-Beijing-Taipei triangular relations, but we do not expect the situation to change after the summit," said Liu Bi-rong (劉必榮), a professor of political science at Soochow University.

Jiang is scheduled to arrive in Chicago on Oct. 22 before visiting Houston for two days.

He will meet with Bush at the president's Crawford, Texas ranch on Oct. 25, ahead of a summit of the APEC forum in Mexico on Oct. 26 to Oct. 27, which both men will attend.

Since Washington had already presented a gift to China, concerning the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), it was not likely to make further concessions on Taiwan, Liu said.

"Opposing the independence of East Turkestan is one of Washington's tactics to win China's support for its war against Iraq, its anti-terrorism efforts and some other policies," he said.

Washington announced in August it would freeze the assets of members of ETIM which Beijing has branded as a "terrorist" group. Last month it backed a decision by the UN to add ETIM to a list of terrorist-linked groups.

Some observers said the moves against ETIM add legitimacy to Beijing's crackdown against Xinjiang's ethnic Uighurs seeeking to establish an independent state called East Turkestan.

Retired diplomat Loh I-cheng (陸以正) said Taiwan would be brought up at the Jiang-Bush meeting "as a formality" since the frameworks governing the triangular ties would remain unchanged.

Washington was expected to restate its commitment to the "one China" policy based on the three communiques it signed with Beijing in 1972, 1979 and 1982, as well as the Taiwan Relations Act.

PFP Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁芳) said Washington may also reinterate its opposition to Taiwan independence, while urging Beijing at the same time to settle cross-strait disputes through peaceful means.

Despite constant protests from Beijing, Washington was unlikely to back down on its commitment to supply defense weapons to Taiwan, Lin said.

But he saw a slim possibility that Bush would ask Beijing to remove the estimated 400 missiles deployed along its coast aimed at Taiwan.