Sun, Aug 04, 2002 - Page 3 News List

Analysts mull the results of Chen's pronouncement

WHAT NEXT?While the president's comments are sure to upset the Beijing leadership, few appear to believe a dramatic shift in cross-strait relations is now in the offing

By Monique Chu  /  STAFF REPORTER

Chin also commented on what he saw as the domestic causes for Chen's remarks.

"When Chen won high office, China didn't take him seriously, thinking his power base was shaky," Chin said.

"Until Chen's DPP won the legislative elections [last December] and emerged as the largest party in the legislature, China continued to play down his significance, although admitting Chen was a major player that Beijing has to deal with," Chin said.

"But still, China has stuck to an `antagonistic' approach to dealing with Taiwan," Chin said, adding that in the long run, this would damage Chen's power base.

After all, Chin argued, Chen's conciliatory gestures toward China since his inauguration have upset some of the hard-liners within the DPP camp.

"Now that he has substantiated his power, both in the legislative and the executive branches, he felt confident in returning to what he had insisted on in the past, and this move would appease his hard-line supporters," Chin said.

With the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections deemed a litmus test for the 2004 presidential election, analysts said Chen's remarks yesterday constituted to a gradual warm-up for his expected candidacy in the presidential race.

"I believe his statements are part of the overall political planning for the race over the next two years," Chen said.

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