Defense analysts call for greater military deterrent

Taiwan needs to boost its military capabilities in order to deter China from attacking and should purchase more advanced weapons from overseas, defense experts warned yesterday.

"Taiwan should enhance its deterrence capabilities -- including a certain level of offensive abilities to reach China's coast -- so as to make China think twice before launching any attack on Taiwan," said Lin Wen-cheng (林文程), dean of the Institute of Mainland China Studies at National Sun Yat-sen University.

Lin, speaking at a seminar on China's military development and cross-strait relations held by the Taiwan Research Institute think tank yesterday, said experts here and abroad agree on the need for this capability, adding a recent Pentagon report lends weight to the argument.

The recently released Pentagon report on China's military power concluded that Beijing's military modernization programs were targeted at hitting Taiwan in a surprise attack in order to force Taipei to capitulate and deal on China's terms short of an all-out invasion.

The report has been perceived by some analysts as a reflection of the US administration's intention to cement military ties with Taiwan and to boost sales of military hardware to the nation.

"To obtain offensive weapon systems is to increase China's calculated cost of triggering a war against us. ... Although Taipei has confronted severe difficulties in purchasing these weapons, it is not completely impossible for Taiwan to get some," Lin said, referring to the US agreement last year to sell eight diesel submarines to Taiwan.

Military experts have viewed the future inclusion of the submarines into Taiwan's navy as instrumental in maintaining the military balance in the Taiwan Strait.

"If we don't beef up our efforts to enhance our military capabilities, we run the risk of losing ... air and sea superiority over China, which many experts predict may begin tilting in China's favor by 2005 or 2007," Lin said.

Based on talks with his counterparts in the US, Lin said some of his American friends have expressed misgivings about what they perceive as the dwindling sense of crisis among the Taiwanese government in facing the military threat from China.

"Taiwan's annual defense budget, which accounts for less than 3 percent of the nation's GDP, has made the Americans suspect that Taiwan's sense of crisis is decreasing," Lin said.

According to defense expert Chen Wen-cheng (陳文政), the Ministry of National Defense's proposed budget for the 2003 fiscal year accounted for 2.3 percent of GDP and 16.4 percent of the total government budget.

But adding to Taiwan's military hardware is not enough, as Taiwanese should enhance their sense of crisis in facing military threats from Beijing, analysts cautioned.

Taiwan should also endeavor to improve its civil defense capabilities and harden psychological defenses among its people, Lin said.

"But so far our civil defense has been carried out rather perfunctorily," Lin added.

Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥), associate research fellow of strategic and international studies at the Taiwan Research Institute, echoed Lin's view.

"Facing the likely scenario of a surprise strike from China, the most important task is for Taiwan to carry out the `national defense by all the people,'" Tsai stressed in a paper released at the seminar.