Although the DPP and KMT have not yet mapped out their campaign strategies for the year-end race for Taipei and Kaohsiung mayors, right now the DPP is on the offensive while the KMT is on the defensive.
"Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (
The DPP's candidate, Cabinet Secretary-General Lee Ying-yuan (
"Lee's trump card is the achievements of former city mayor, now-President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), which are the golden standard for evaluating Ma," Chin said.
In addition to aggressively promoting Lee, Chin said the DPP should focus on siphoning off constituents who supported Chen during the last Taipei mayoral race in 1998.
Introducing an impressive line-up of possible city government officials would be helpful as well, Chin said.
"And don't forget the impact former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) can bring to the race," Chin said.
As for the Kaohsiung mayoral poll, Chin said that although the KMT and PFP have not yet decided whether to jointly field a candidate, it is most likely that PFP Vice Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung (張昭雄) will decide to join the race.
"That leaves the KMT to take care of its own problem of negotiating with the three party members who have expressed keen interest in running," Chin said.
The three KMT aspirants are former vice mayor of Kaohsiung Huang Jun-ying (
If Chang is to join the fray, Chin said, it will be to the advantage of incumbent Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) that former DPP chairman Shih Ming-te (施明德) is in the race.
"I believe Hsieh is pleased to see Shih join the race because Shih will attract some ballots from the `pan-blue' camp," Chin said.
Shih formally announced his candidacy on June 2 and promised to turn Kaohsiung into an "autonomous" port city that would enjoy direct links with China.
Commenting on the mayoral polls as a whole, Chin said that the KMT is under considerable more pressure than the DPP.
"Since confrontation between the `pan blue' and `pan green' camps is inevitable, I believe that the DPP isn't under as much pressure as the KMT is because if the DPP loses, it still has the 2004 presidential election to look forward to while the KMT doesn't," Chin said.
Wu Tung-yeh (吳東野), the chairman of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University, agreed with Chin and said that the DPP is on the offensive while the KMT is on the defensive.
"Basically Ma's campaign strategies are contingent on those of Lee [Ying-yuan]," Wu said. "Lee, however, has a slim chance of winning although he's popular and has a lot of charisma."
Even if the DPP loses, Wu said that it's a good way to gauge how much support the party can garner.
"The DPP, after all, may see the mayoral polls as a litmus test for the 2004 presidential election," he said.
Wu said that it's critical the campaigns focus on public policy, citing as an example the Cabinet's recent refusal to subsidize the city's dredging of the Keelung River.
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