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US academic gives ideas for Taiwan's hold on democracy

As integration across the Taiwan Strait intensifies in non-political fields, a US scholar in a paper released yesterday envisioned three possibilities through which Taiwan's democracy could remain without being threatened by integration with its giant neighbor.

Daniel Lynch, assistant professor with the School of International Relations at the University of Southern California, presented three scenarios that could save Taiwan's democracy.

"First, ascending disorder in China could slow down economic and cultural integration, weakening the voices of those in Taiwan who might act as stalking horses for Beijing," Lynch wrote in a paper entitled Cross-Strait Integration and Taiwan's Democratic Consolidation.

The second possibility, Lynch argued, was for the US and Japan to strengthen their ties with Taiwan, thus offering the country "the kind of iron-clad security guarantee that would neutralize Beijing's threat and solidify `two countries, two systems.'"

Lynch believes that the effect of the strengthened relationships among Taipei, Tokyo and Washington could not only "deflate domestic proponents of `one country, two systems' but also mollify worried Taiwanese nationalists."

"Domestic tensions would then decline and democratic consolidation become less likely to be challenged," Lynch argued.

Lynch also argued that the first step toward forging ties with Tokyo and Washington would be to secure a free-trade agreement among the three sides.

"A free-trade agreement would have the additional benefit of locking Taiwan into an international democratic community, further enhancing prospects for consolidation and reducing the likelihood of retrogression," argued Lynch, while admitting that the perceived stark opposition from Beijing to such an initiative remained the instrumental barrier yet to be overcome.

After its accession to the WTO, Taiwan has targeted several countries as potential partners for a free-trade agreement, with related studies underway.

The American scholar also envisioned the least likely outcome, namely, China's relinquishment of its claim to Taiwan after coming to the conclusion that China's troubles at home demand the leaders' attention. Under such a scenario, China would find it frivolous and irresponsible to spend its energy pursuing Taiwan.

The first step toward this direction, Lynch argued, would be for the leaders in Beijing to renounce the use of force and to demilitarize the southeast China coast by destroying or relocating the medium-range missiles aimed at Taiwan.

The paper was presented at an international workshop on "Challenges to Taiwan's Democracy in the Post-Hegemonic Era," held by the Institute for National Policy Research and the Hoover Institution of Stanford University.
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