Recent remarks by President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) on cross-strait ties have scored points at home and abroad but have done little to move relations with China forward, observers say.
"Through the opportunity of leading a group of media executives on a two-day tour around the country, President Chen released three general guidelines -- pushing for dialogue between the ruling DPP and the Chinese Communist Party, speeding up trade liberalization and maintaining the goal of future political integration -- on cross-strait relations. That important announcement has had the effect of setting the agenda [for cross-strait affairs] both in terms of media exposure and political implications," said Chin Heng-wei (
While Chin, who attended the tour, said that Chen's ideas are not very feasible and may not change the course of cross-strait relations, he said they did help Chen gain an upper hand in the international propaganda war by reinforcing his rational image and goodwill toward China.
"The president extended his goodwill by reiterating political integration in the future first and using the expansion of the `small three links' as a bargaining chip. In fact, he wanted to sell his idea of cross-strait inter-party contact to the international community, demonstrating Taiwan's flexibility and sincerity in comparison with China's stubbornness and high-handedness," Chin said.
Chin added that Chen also gained domestically, as opposition parties were pressured into adjusting their strategies.
Byron Weng (翁松燃), a national policy adviser to the president and a professor in the department of Public Policy and Administration at National Chi Nan University, said that with Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao's (
"It is also noteworthy that the China Daily ... recently printed an article which was highly critical of President Chen and accused Chen of playing dual tactics. In addition, there is the `Campaign to Rectify the Name of Taiwan' going on in Taiwan at the moment. It seems like China is preparing to wage a propaganda war against Chen just as they did against former president Lee [Teng-hui (李登輝)] in 1995. President Chen's goodwill overture at this juncture is an intriguing contrast," Weng said.
"For China, inter-party contact has become a new subject that it needs to ponder," Weng said.
Though Chen's statements in Tatan, an islet and military outpost under Kinmen's jurisdiction, were aimed at testing the possibility for resuming official talks with China, the significance of his comments lies in his emphasis on "contact between the two ruling parties."
With his use of "political party," the president suggested a new medium for talks and thereby bypassed the conventional channels of the Strait Exchange Foundation and the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC).
The new medium may, once Chen takes up the DPP chairmanship in August, offer him a forceful starting point to realize the idea of "synchronizing the party and the administration" (
Su Chi (蘇起), former MAC chairman, wondered when the public would see the results of Chen's comments, saying that for Chen to carry out the promise of cross-strait contact, he needs more substantially more political support.
"People may be more concerned about what the president's concrete measures will be. Given that China insists on making the `one China' principle the precondition for restarting cross-strait negotiations, Chen needs to unify the domestic political and social forces and form a majority consensus. Only with a consensus as his backup can he have the authority to make calls and force China to respond one way or the other," Su said.
Su added that the president has sent conflicting messages.
"For example, while the president expressed his goodwill to China, he criticized Hu Jintao one day before and then observed a missile-test exercise one day after. Such contradictory behavior doesn't help create a positive atmosphere across the Strait. Because of that I don't see any chance for cross-strait negotiation in the near future," he said.
Political observers have also said that initiating a media tour and choosing the site of Tatan (which means "boldness" in Chinese) to announce a new direction for cross-strait policy shows that the Chen administration has matured into politically savvy, PR-minded team.
"On the eve of the second anniversary of Chen's inauguration on May 20, these moves may help cultivate a positive evaluation of his administration, ie, the president proposing a forward-looking policy with creativity and boldness. But creativity and boldness cannot make these policies a reality," Su said.
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